Red Bull Salzburg – AC Milan odds
AC Milan went into the match as clear favourites against Red Bull Salzburg.
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Red Bull Salzburg – AC Milan: closing odds analysis
- AC Milan were favourites: the closing odds implied a 49% chance of an away win, 26% for Red Bull Salzburg and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Red Bull Salzburg 3.90 at Stake, the draw 3.90 at Betano, AC Milan 2.60 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on AC Milan drifted from 1.98 at the opening to 2.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 54% chance of three or more goals and 59% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Red Bull Salzburg or AC Milan?
AC Milan, clearly: the closing odds put 22.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Red Bull Salzburg – AC Milan?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Red Bull Salzburg, Betano on the draw and bwin on AC Milan. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (95.8%) and bwin the least (88.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | RED BULL SALZBURG | DRAW | AC MILAN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.90 best price | 3.75 | 1.92 | 95.8% |
| VBET | 3.82 | 3.87 | 1.89 | 95.3% |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.90 best price | 1.91 | 95.2% |
| Casinomoto | 3.75 | 3.80 | 1.88 | 94.2% |
| Betoro | 3.75 | 3.80 | 1.88 | 94.2% |
| Casino House | 3.75 | 3.80 | 1.88 | 94.2% |
| ComeOn | 3.71 | 3.76 | 1.90 | 94.2% |
| Betinia | 3.75 | 3.80 | 1.86 | 93.7% |
| CampoBet | 3.75 | 3.80 | 1.86 | 93.7% |
| GetLucky | 3.68 | 3.73 | 1.88 | 93.3% |
| Casinostuen | 3.68 | 3.73 | 1.88 | 93.3% |
| Expekt | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.90 | 93.1% |
| Bet25 | 3.50 | 3.85 | 1.84 | 91.8% |
| 888sport | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.85 | 91.2% |
| Mr Green | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.85 | 91.2% |
| bwin | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.60 best price | 88.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.90 | 3.90 | 2.60 | 111.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.15–3.90 · 81.4% | 3.60–3.90 · 8.3% | 1.84–2.60 · 41.3% | 88.7–95.8% |
How did the Red Bull Salzburg – AC Milan odds move before kick-off?
The best price on AC Milan drifted from 1.98 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 2.60 at kick-off, a 31.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | RED BULL SALZBURG | DRAW | AC MILAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.98 |
| Sat 10 Oct | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.98 |
| Thu 15 Oct (kick-off) | 3.90 | 3.90 | 2.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 58.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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