NEC Nijmegen – Levski Sofia odds
NEC Nijmegen went into the match as heavy favourites against Levski Sofia.
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NEC Nijmegen – Levski Sofia: closing odds analysis
- NEC Nijmegen were favourites: the closing odds implied a 50% chance of a home win, 23% for Levski Sofia and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.93 at Oddset, the draw 3.80 at Casinomoto, Levski Sofia 4.60 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Levski Sofia drifted from 3.90 at the opening to 4.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 50% chance of three or more goals and 51% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, NEC Nijmegen or Levski Sofia?
NEC Nijmegen, by a distance: the closing odds put 26.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on NEC Nijmegen – Levski Sofia?
It depended on the outcome: Oddset was best on NEC Nijmegen, Casinomoto on the draw and Stake on Levski Sofia. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (95.9%) and Betmaster the least (90.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | NEC NIJMEGEN | DRAW | LEVSKI SOFIA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.79 | 3.75 | 4.60 best price | 95.9% |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.55 | 4.10 | 95.3% |
| Oddset | 1.93 best price | 3.55 | 4.00 | 95.3% |
| SpreadEx | 1.91 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 1.78 | 3.60 | 4.50 | 94.2% |
| Betoro | 1.87 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 94.1% |
| Casino House | 1.87 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 94.1% |
| ComeOn | 1.91 | 3.47 | 3.96 | 94.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.77 | 3.80 best price | 4.20 | 93.8% |
| Betinia | 1.88 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 93.7% |
| CampoBet | 1.88 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 93.7% |
| Bet25 | 1.89 | 3.55 | 3.80 | 93.1% |
| GetLucky | 1.89 | 3.43 | 3.93 | 93.0% |
| Casinostuen | 1.89 | 3.43 | 3.93 | 93.0% |
| Expekt | 1.90 | 3.45 | 3.85 | 92.9% |
| VBET | 1.85 | 3.47 | 3.96 | 92.5% |
| 888sport | 1.90 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 91.5% |
| Mr Green | 1.90 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 91.5% |
| Betmaster | 1.87 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 90.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.93 | 3.80 | 4.60 | 100.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.77–1.93 · 9.0% | 3.25–3.80 · 16.9% | 3.75–4.60 · 22.7% | 90.2–95.9% |
How did the NEC Nijmegen – Levski Sofia odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Levski Sofia drifted from 3.90 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 4.60 at kick-off, a 17.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | NEC NIJMEGEN | DRAW | LEVSKI SOFIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.90 |
| Sat 10 Oct | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| Thu 15 Oct (kick-off) | 1.93 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 50.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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