Lugano – Crvena Zvezda odds
Lugano went into the match as clear favourites against Crvena Zvezda.
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Lugano – Crvena Zvezda: closing odds analysis
- Lugano were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of a home win, 31% for Crvena Zvezda and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Lugano 2.27 at VBET, the draw 3.75 at Stake, Crvena Zvezda 3.25 at bwin.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Crvena Zvezda drifted from 2.42 at the opening to 3.15 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 52% chance of three or more goals and 60% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Lugano or Crvena Zvezda?
Lugano, clearly: the closing odds put 12.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Lugano – Crvena Zvezda?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Lugano, Stake on the draw and bwin on Crvena Zvezda. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (95.3%) and Betmaster the least (90.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | LUGANO | DRAW | CRVENA ZVEZDA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.55 | 3.15 | 95.3% |
| Casinomoto | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 94.0% |
| Betoro | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 94.0% |
| Casino House | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 94.0% |
| ComeOn | 2.11 | 3.57 | 3.07 | 92.6% |
| VBET | 2.27 best price | 3.59 | 2.77 | 92.6% |
| Betinia | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 92.4% |
| CampoBet | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 92.4% |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 92.2% |
| Mr Green | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 92.2% |
| Bet25 | 2.08 | 3.70 | 2.95 | 91.7% |
| GetLucky | 2.09 | 3.53 | 3.04 | 91.7% |
| Casinostuen | 2.09 | 3.53 | 3.04 | 91.7% |
| bwin | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.25 best price | 91.3% |
| Betmaster | 2.10 | 3.35 | 3.00 | 90.3% |
| Stake | 2.10 | 3.75 best price | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 2.27 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 98.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.08–2.27 · 9.1% | 3.10–3.75 · 21.0% | 2.77–3.25 · 17.3% | 90.3–95.3% |
How did the Lugano – Crvena Zvezda odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Crvena Zvezda drifted from 2.42 when odds opened on 10 Oct to 3.15 at kick-off, a 30.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LUGANO | DRAW | CRVENA ZVEZDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct (open) | 2.85 | 3.60 | 2.42 |
| Tue 13 Oct | 2.85 | 3.60 | 2.42 |
| Thu 15 Oct (kick-off) | 2.25 | 3.70 | 3.15 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 60.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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The odds imply probabilities; they are not predictions. OddsStat is a comparison service, not a bookmaker. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.