Bournemouth – Sturm Graz odds
Bournemouth went into the match as heavy favourites against Sturm Graz.
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Bournemouth – Sturm Graz: closing odds analysis
- Bournemouth were favourites: the closing odds implied a 81% chance of a home win, 7% for Sturm Graz and 12% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Bournemouth 1.20 at Casinomoto, the draw 8.60 at Stake, Sturm Graz 16.00 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Sturm Graz drifted from 13.00 at the opening to 16.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 46% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Bournemouth or Sturm Graz?
Bournemouth, by a distance: the closing odds put 74.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Bournemouth – Sturm Graz?
It depended on the outcome: Casinomoto was best on Bournemouth, Stake on the draw and Stake on Sturm Graz. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.1%) and Mr Green the least (92.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | BOURNEMOUTH | DRAW | STURM GRAZ | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.16 | 8.60 best price | 16.00 best price | 96.1% |
| Oddset | 1.16 | 8.25 | 15.00 | 95.2% |
| Betano | 1.17 | 7.60 | 15.00 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 1.16 | 8.50 | 13.50 | 94.9% |
| VBET | 1.15 | 8.30 | 15.00 | 94.6% |
| ComeOn | 1.15 | 8.22 | 14.61 | 94.4% |
| Betoro | 1.15 | 8.00 | 15.00 | 94.2% |
| Casino House | 1.15 | 8.00 | 15.00 | 94.2% |
| Bet25 | 1.16 | 8.40 | 12.00 | 93.9% |
| Betinia | 1.15 | 8.00 | 14.00 | 93.8% |
| CampoBet | 1.15 | 8.00 | 14.00 | 93.8% |
| Casinomoto | 1.20 best price | 6.66 | 12.00 | 93.7% |
| SpreadEx | 1.15 | 8.00 | 13.00 | 93.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.14 | 8.14 | 14.47 | 93.5% |
| Casinostuen | 1.14 | 8.14 | 14.47 | 93.5% |
| Expekt | 1.14 | 8.00 | 13.00 | 92.7% |
| 888sport | 1.15 | 7.50 | 13.00 | 92.6% |
| Mr Green | 1.15 | 7.50 | 13.00 | 92.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.20 | 8.60 | 16.00 | 98.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.14–1.20 · 5.3% | 6.66–8.60 · 29.1% | 12.00–16.00 · 33.3% | 92.6–96.1% |
How did the Bournemouth – Sturm Graz odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Sturm Graz drifted from 13.00 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 16.00 at kick-off, a 23.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BOURNEMOUTH | DRAW | STURM GRAZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 1.31 | 7.40 | 13.00 |
| Sat 10 Oct | 1.30 | 7.40 | 13.00 |
| Thu 15 Oct (kick-off) | 1.20 | 8.80 | 16.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 46.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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