Benfica – Celtic odds
Benfica went into the match as heavy favourites against Celtic.
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Benfica – Celtic: closing odds analysis
- Benfica were favourites: the closing odds implied a 80% chance of a home win, 8% for Celtic and 12% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Benfica 1.25 at Casinomoto, the draw 11.50 at Marathonbet, Celtic 15.00 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 6.20 at the opening to 11.50 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 52% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Benfica or Celtic?
Benfica, by a distance: the closing odds put 72.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Benfica – Celtic?
It depended on the outcome: Casinomoto was best on Benfica, Marathonbet on the draw and Stake on Celtic. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.2%) and Mr Green the least (93.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | BENFICA | DRAW | CELTIC | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.16 | 9.00 | 15.00 best price | 96.2% |
| VBET | 1.20 | 7.70 | 12.00 | 95.6% |
| Betano | 1.20 | 7.30 | 13.00 | 95.5% |
| ComeOn | 1.17 | 8.12 | 12.88 | 94.7% |
| bwin | 1.17 | 8.25 | 12.50 | 94.7% |
| Bet25 | 1.17 | 8.40 | 11.00 | 93.9% |
| GetLucky | 1.16 | 8.05 | 12.76 | 93.9% |
| Casinostuen | 1.16 | 8.05 | 12.76 | 93.9% |
| Betoro | 1.17 | 7.50 | 13.00 | 93.9% |
| Casino House | 1.17 | 7.50 | 13.00 | 93.9% |
| Casinomoto | 1.25 best price | 6.00 | 10.00 | 93.8% |
| SpreadEx | 1.15 | 8.00 | 13.00 | 93.6% |
| Betmaster | 1.18 | 7.60 | 11.00 | 93.5% |
| Betinia | 1.17 | 7.50 | 12.00 | 93.3% |
| CampoBet | 1.17 | 7.50 | 12.00 | 93.3% |
| 888sport | 1.16 | 7.50 | 13.00 | 93.3% |
| Mr Green | 1.16 | 7.50 | 13.00 | 93.3% |
| Marathonbet | — | 11.50 best price | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 1.25 | 11.50 | 15.00 | 104.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.15–1.25 · 8.3% | 6.00–11.50 · 91.7% | 10.00–15.00 · 50.0% | 93.3–96.2% |
How did the Benfica – Celtic odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 6.20 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 11.50 at kick-off, a 85.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BENFICA | DRAW | CELTIC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 1.37 | 6.20 | 9.80 |
| Sat 10 Oct | 1.37 | 6.20 | 9.80 |
| Thu 15 Oct (kick-off) | 1.25 | 11.50 | 15.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 52.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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