Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens odds
Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens went into the match almost level in the odds.
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Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens: closing odds analysis
- No clear favourite: the closing odds implied 35% for Shakhtar Donetsk, 28% for a draw and 36% for AEK Athens.
- Best closing odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 3.10 at bwin, the draw 3.90 at bwin, AEK Athens 2.77 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Shakhtar Donetsk drifted from 2.70 at the opening to 3.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 48% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Shakhtar Donetsk or AEK Athens?
Neither side, really: the closing odds put only 0.9 percentage points between Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Shakhtar Donetsk, bwin on the draw and Betano on AEK Athens. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.4%) and bwin the least (89.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | SHAKHTAR DONETSK | DRAW | AEK ATHENS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.35 | 2.77 best price | 97.4% |
| VBET | 2.69 | 3.31 | 2.74 | 96.3% |
| Stake | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.60 | 96.1% |
| Expekt | 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.70 | 95.6% |
| Casinomoto | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.62 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 2.66 | 3.33 | 2.66 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 2.66 | 3.33 | 2.66 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 2.66 | 3.33 | 2.66 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 2.66 | 3.33 | 2.66 | 95.0% |
| ComeOn | 2.62 | 3.37 | 2.67 | 95.0% |
| GetLucky | 2.60 | 3.34 | 2.65 | 94.2% |
| Casinostuen | 2.60 | 3.34 | 2.65 | 94.2% |
| Betmaster | 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.65 | 93.3% |
| Bet25 | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.55 | 91.7% |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.60 | 91.1% |
| Mr Green | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.60 | 91.1% |
| bwin | 3.10 best price | 3.90 best price | 1.85 | 89.3% |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.60 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.77 | 106.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.50–3.10 · 24.0% | 2.60–3.90 · 50.0% | 1.85–2.77 · 49.7% | 89.3–97.4% |
How did the Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Shakhtar Donetsk drifted from 2.70 when odds opened on 14 Sep to 3.10 at kick-off, a 14.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SHAKHTAR DONETSK | DRAW | AEK ATHENS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 14 Sep (open) | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Wed 30 Sep | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Wed 14 Oct (kick-off) | 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.77 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 53.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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