Roma – Real Madrid odds
Real Madrid went into the match as clear favourites against Roma.
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Roma – Real Madrid: closing odds analysis
- Real Madrid were favourites: the closing odds implied a 49% chance of an away win, 27% for Roma and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Roma 3.70 at Stake, the draw 4.15 at Betano, Real Madrid 2.15 at bwin.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Real Madrid drifted from 2.05 at the opening to 2.15 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 66% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Roma or Real Madrid?
Real Madrid, clearly: the closing odds put 21.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Roma – Real Madrid?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Roma, Betano on the draw and bwin on Real Madrid. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.7%) and bwin the least (89.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | ROMA | DRAW | REAL MADRID | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 3.60 | 4.15 best price | 1.98 | 97.7% |
| VBET | 3.58 | 4.10 | 1.97 | 97.0% |
| Stake | 3.70 best price | 4.10 | 1.90 | 96.1% |
| Oddset | 3.55 | 4.00 | 1.94 | 95.5% |
| Expekt | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.95 | 95.4% |
| ComeOn | 3.57 | 3.96 | 1.93 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.90 | 94.9% |
| CampoBet | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.90 | 94.9% |
| Casinomoto | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.90 | 94.9% |
| Betoro | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.90 | 94.9% |
| Casino House | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.90 | 94.9% |
| GetLucky | 3.53 | 3.92 | 1.91 | 94.2% |
| Casinostuen | 3.53 | 3.92 | 1.91 | 94.2% |
| SpreadEx | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.91 | 93.8% |
| 888sport | 3.25 | 4.00 | 1.95 | 93.4% |
| Mr Green | 3.25 | 4.00 | 1.95 | 93.4% |
| Betmaster | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.93 | 93.4% |
| Bet25 | 3.30 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 90.2% |
| bwin | 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.15 best price | 89.2% |
| Marathonbet | — | 3.48 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 3.70 | 4.15 | 2.15 | 102.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.50–3.70 · 48.0% | 3.48–4.15 · 19.3% | 1.80–2.15 · 19.4% | 89.2–97.7% |
How did the Roma – Real Madrid odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Real Madrid drifted from 2.05 when odds opened on 14 Sep to 2.15 at kick-off, a 4.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ROMA | DRAW | REAL MADRID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 14 Sep (open) | 3.60 | 4.10 | 2.05 |
| Wed 30 Sep | 3.30 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| Wed 14 Oct (kick-off) | 3.70 | 4.15 | 2.15 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 65.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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