Villarreal – Napoli odds
Villarreal went into the match as clear favourites against Napoli.
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Villarreal – Napoli: closing odds analysis
- Villarreal were favourites: the closing odds implied a 44% chance of a home win, 29% for Napoli and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Villarreal 2.60 at bwin, the draw 3.80 at bwin, Napoli 3.50 at Betinia.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Napoli drifted from 3.00 at the opening to 3.50 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 54% chance of three or more goals and 57% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Villarreal or Napoli?
Villarreal, clearly: the closing odds put 14.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Villarreal – Napoli?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Villarreal, bwin on the draw and Betinia on Napoli. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.7%) and bwin the least (88.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | VILLARREAL | DRAW | NAPOLI | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.70 | 3.40 | 97.7% |
| VBET | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 97.6% |
| Stake | 2.18 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 96.2% |
| Oddset | 2.17 | 3.60 | 3.25 | 95.6% |
| Expekt | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.25 | 95.4% |
| ComeOn | 2.16 | 3.57 | 3.27 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 best price | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 best price | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 best price | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 best price | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 best price | 95.1% |
| GetLucky | 2.14 | 3.53 | 3.24 | 94.4% |
| Casinostuen | 2.14 | 3.53 | 3.24 | 94.4% |
| SpreadEx | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 94.1% |
| Betmaster | 2.16 | 3.35 | 3.20 | 93.1% |
| 888sport | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 91.4% |
| Mr Green | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 91.4% |
| Bet25 | 2.08 | 3.55 | 3.00 | 91.3% |
| bwin | 2.60 best price | 3.80 best price | 2.05 | 88.1% |
| Marathonbet | — | 3.24 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 2.60 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 107.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.05–2.60 · 26.8% | 3.24–3.80 · 17.3% | 2.05–3.50 · 70.7% | 88.1–97.7% |
How did the Villarreal – Napoli odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Napoli drifted from 3.00 when odds opened on 14 Sep to 3.50 at kick-off, a 16.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | VILLARREAL | DRAW | NAPOLI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 14 Sep (open) | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Tue 29 Sep | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.14 |
| Tue 13 Oct (kick-off) | 2.60 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 57.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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