Stoke City – Middlesbrough odds
Middlesbrough went into the match as clear favourites against Stoke City.
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Stoke City – Middlesbrough: closing odds analysis
- Middlesbrough were favourites: the closing odds implied a 48% chance of an away win, 27% for Stoke City and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Stoke City 3.85 at Betano, the draw 4.00 at bwin, Middlesbrough 3.00 at bwin.
- Betinia had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Middlesbrough drifted from 2.05 at the opening to 3.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 51% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Stoke City or Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough, clearly: the closing odds put 21.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Stoke City – Middlesbrough?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Stoke City, bwin on the draw and bwin on Middlesbrough. Across all three outcomes Betinia paid out the most (95.1%) and bwin the least (87.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | STOKE CITY | DRAW | MIDDLESBROUGH | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betinia | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.93 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.93 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.93 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.93 | 95.1% |
| Betano | 3.85 best price | 3.65 | 1.93 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 3.85 best price | 3.65 | 1.93 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 3.66 | 3.66 | 1.92 | 93.7% |
| Stake | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.92 | 93.6% |
| ComeOn | 3.76 | 3.67 | 1.88 | 93.4% |
| Bet25 | 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.87 | 92.7% |
| GetLucky | 3.73 | 3.63 | 1.86 | 92.5% |
| Casinostuen | 3.73 | 3.63 | 1.86 | 92.5% |
| VBET | 3.53 | 3.57 | 1.87 | 91.1% |
| Betmaster | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.86 | 90.1% |
| bwin | 1.80 | 4.00 best price | 3.00 best price | 87.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.85 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 118.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.80–3.85 · 113.9% | 3.40–4.00 · 17.6% | 1.86–3.00 · 61.3% | 87.8–95.1% |
How did the Stoke City – Middlesbrough odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Middlesbrough drifted from 2.05 when odds opened on 11 Oct to 3.00 at kick-off, a 46.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | STOKE CITY | DRAW | MIDDLESBROUGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 11 Oct (open) | 3.50 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Mon 12 Oct | 3.50 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Tue 13 Oct (kick-off) | 3.85 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 55.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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