Millwall – Swansea City odds
Millwall went into the match as narrow favourites against Swansea City.
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Millwall – Swansea City: closing odds analysis
- Millwall were favourites: the closing odds implied a 39% chance of a home win, 32% for Swansea City and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Millwall 3.10 at bwin, the draw 3.80 at bwin, Swansea City 3.14 at Betinia.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Millwall drifted from 2.65 at the opening to 3.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 46% chance of three or more goals and 52% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Millwall or Swansea City?
Millwall, but only just: the closing odds put 7.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Millwall – Swansea City?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Millwall, bwin on the draw and Betinia on Swansea City. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (95.4%) and bwin the least (87.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | MILLWALL | DRAW | SWANSEA CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.35 | 3.05 | 95.4% |
| Betinia | 2.36 | 3.25 | 3.14 best price | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 2.36 | 3.25 | 3.14 best price | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 2.36 | 3.25 | 3.14 best price | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 2.36 | 3.25 | 3.14 best price | 95.2% |
| Oddset | 2.35 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 93.9% |
| Stake | 2.37 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 93.5% |
| ComeOn | 2.31 | 3.27 | 3.02 | 93.5% |
| Bet25 | 2.29 | 3.35 | 2.95 | 93.1% |
| GetLucky | 2.29 | 3.24 | 2.99 | 92.6% |
| Casinostuen | 2.29 | 3.24 | 2.99 | 92.6% |
| VBET | 2.35 | 3.11 | 2.83 | 90.9% |
| Betmaster | 2.26 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 90.1% |
| bwin | 3.10 best price | 3.80 best price | 1.80 | 87.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.10 | 3.80 | 3.14 | 110.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.26–3.10 · 37.2% | 3.10–3.80 · 22.6% | 1.80–3.14 · 74.4% | 87.6–95.4% |
How did the Millwall – Swansea City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Millwall drifted from 2.65 when odds opened on 11 Oct to 3.10 at kick-off, a 17.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MILLWALL | DRAW | SWANSEA CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 11 Oct (open) | 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.75 |
| Mon 12 Oct | 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.75 |
| Tue 13 Oct (kick-off) | 3.10 | 3.80 | 3.14 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 52.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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