Atlético Madrid – Man Utd odds
Atlético Madrid went into the match as clear favourites against Man Utd.
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Atlético Madrid – Man Utd: closing odds analysis
- Atlético Madrid were favourites: the closing odds implied a 50% chance of a home win, 26% for Man Utd and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Atlético Madrid 3.30 at bwin, the draw 4.00 at Stake, Man Utd 4.60 at VBET.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Man Utd drifted from 2.85 at the opening to 4.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 52% chance of three or more goals and 58% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Atlético Madrid or Man Utd?
Atlético Madrid, clearly: the closing odds put 24.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Atlético Madrid – Man Utd?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Atlético Madrid, Stake on the draw and VBET on Man Utd. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.7%) and bwin the least (89.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | ATLÉTICO MADRID | DRAW | MAN UTD | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.90 | 4.30 | 97.7% |
| VBET | 1.81 | 3.93 | 4.60 best price | 97.6% |
| Stake | 1.79 | 4.00 best price | 4.30 | 96.0% |
| Betmaster | 1.86 | 3.65 | 4.30 | 95.8% |
| Oddset | 1.82 | 3.85 | 4.25 | 95.7% |
| Casino House | 1.86 | 3.80 | 4.00 | 95.2% |
| ComeOn | 1.81 | 3.86 | 4.16 | 95.1% |
| Expekt | 1.83 | 3.80 | 4.10 | 94.9% |
| GetLucky | 1.80 | 3.83 | 4.12 | 94.4% |
| Casinostuen | 1.80 | 3.83 | 4.12 | 94.4% |
| 888sport | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 92.5% |
| Mr Green | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 92.5% |
| Bet25 | 1.72 | 3.90 | 3.85 | 91.1% |
| bwin | 3.30 best price | 3.70 | 1.82 | 89.1% |
| Marathonbet | — | 3.88 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 3.30 | 4.00 | 4.60 | 129.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.72–3.30 · 91.9% | 3.65–4.00 · 9.6% | 1.82–4.60 · 152.7% | 89.1–97.7% |
How did the Atlético Madrid – Man Utd odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Man Utd drifted from 2.85 when odds opened on 14 Sep to 4.60 at kick-off, a 61.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ATLÉTICO MADRID | DRAW | MAN UTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 14 Sep (open) | 2.45 | 3.80 | 2.85 |
| Tue 29 Sep | 2.40 | 3.85 | 2.90 |
| Tue 13 Oct (kick-off) | 3.30 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 58.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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