Arsenal – Lille odds
Arsenal went into the match as heavy favourites against Lille.
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Arsenal – Lille: closing odds analysis
- Arsenal were favourites: the closing odds implied a 76% chance of a home win, 10% for Lille and 14% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Arsenal 4.80 at bwin, the draw 10.25 at Marathonbet, Lille 16.00 at Stake.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Arsenal drifted from 1.32 at the opening to 4.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance of three or more goals and 40% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Arsenal or Lille?
Arsenal, by a distance: the closing odds put 65.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Arsenal – Lille?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Arsenal, Marathonbet on the draw and Stake on Lille. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.6%) and bwin the least (89.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | ARSENAL | DRAW | LILLE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.24 | 6.70 | 14.50 | 97.6% |
| VBET | 1.22 | 6.60 | 15.00 | 96.4% |
| Stake | 1.19 | 7.40 | 16.00 best price | 96.3% |
| Oddset | 1.22 | 6.75 | 12.50 | 95.4% |
| ComeOn | 1.22 | 6.74 | 12.38 | 95.3% |
| Expekt | 1.22 | 6.75 | 12.00 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 1.18 | 7.50 | 14.00 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.18 | 7.50 | 14.00 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.18 | 7.50 | 14.00 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 1.18 | 7.50 | 14.00 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 1.18 | 7.50 | 14.00 | 95.0% |
| GetLucky | 1.21 | 6.67 | 12.26 | 94.5% |
| Casinostuen | 1.21 | 6.67 | 12.26 | 94.5% |
| SpreadEx | 1.22 | 6.00 | 13.00 | 94.2% |
| Bet25 | 1.21 | 6.60 | 11.00 | 93.6% |
| Betmaster | 1.22 | 6.20 | 11.00 | 93.3% |
| 888sport | 1.20 | 6.00 | 13.00 | 92.9% |
| Mr Green | 1.20 | 6.00 | 13.00 | 92.9% |
| bwin | 4.80 best price | 4.00 | 1.51 | 89.2% |
| Marathonbet | — | 10.25 best price | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 4.80 | 10.25 | 16.00 | 271.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.18–4.80 · 306.8% | 4.00–10.25 · 156.3% | 1.51–16.00 · 959.6% | 89.2–97.6% |
How did the Arsenal – Lille odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Arsenal drifted from 1.32 when odds opened on 14 Sep to 4.80 at kick-off, a 263.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ARSENAL | DRAW | LILLE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 14 Sep (open) | 1.32 | 6.90 | 13.00 |
| Tue 29 Sep | 1.40 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| Tue 13 Oct (kick-off) | 4.80 | 10.25 | 16.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 40.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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