Liverpool – Man City odds
Man City went into the match as narrow favourites against Liverpool.
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Liverpool – Man City: closing odds analysis
- Man City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of an away win, 31% for Liverpool and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Liverpool 3.60 at Stake, the draw 3.85 at Stake, Man City 2.35 at Betmaster.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Liverpool drifted from 2.95 at the opening to 3.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance of three or more goals and 60% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Liverpool or Man City?
Man City, but only just: the closing odds put 11.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Liverpool – Man City?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Liverpool, Stake on the draw and Betmaster on Man City. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.5%) and Bet25 the least (92.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | LIVERPOOL | DRAW | MAN CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.75 | 2.32 | 97.5% |
| VBET | 3.59 | 3.70 | 2.06 | 96.7% |
| Stake | 3.60 best price | 3.85 best price | 1.99 | 96.2% |
| Oddset | 2.95 | 3.65 | 2.30 | 95.4% |
| Betmaster | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.35 best price | 95.4% |
| Betinia | 3.00 | 3.66 | 2.25 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 3.00 | 3.66 | 2.25 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 3.00 | 3.66 | 2.25 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 3.00 | 3.66 | 2.25 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 3.00 | 3.66 | 2.25 | 95.1% |
| bwin | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 94.6% |
| ComeOn | 2.92 | 3.62 | 2.28 | 94.6% |
| GetLucky | 2.89 | 3.58 | 2.26 | 93.6% |
| Casinostuen | 2.89 | 3.58 | 2.26 | 93.6% |
| Bet25 | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.20 | 92.4% |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.85 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 3.60 | 3.85 | 2.35 | 103.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.80–3.60 · 28.6% | 2.85–3.85 · 35.1% | 1.99–2.35 · 18.1% | 92.4–97.5% |
How did the Liverpool – Man City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Liverpool drifted from 2.95 when odds opened on 21 Sep to 3.60 at kick-off, a 22.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LIVERPOOL | DRAW | MAN CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 21 Sep (open) | 2.95 | 3.70 | 2.25 |
| Fri 2 Oct | 2.95 | 3.71 | 2.54 |
| Sun 11 Oct (kick-off) | 3.60 | 3.85 | 2.35 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 59.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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