Freiburg – Schalke 04 odds
Freiburg went into the match as heavy favourites against Schalke 04.
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Freiburg – Schalke 04: closing odds analysis
- Freiburg were favourites: the closing odds implied a 59% chance of a home win, 19% for Schalke 04 and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Freiburg 1.65 at VBET, the draw 4.40 at Stake, Schalke 04 5.30 at VBET.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.10 at the opening to 4.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Freiburg or Schalke 04?
Freiburg, by a distance: the closing odds put 40.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Freiburg – Schalke 04?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Freiburg, Stake on the draw and VBET on Schalke 04. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.3%) and bwin the least (94.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | FREIBURG | DRAW | SCHALKE 04 | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.65 best price | 4.10 | 5.30 best price | 96.3% |
| Stake | 1.61 | 4.40 best price | 5.20 | 96.1% |
| bwin | 1.61 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 94.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.65 | 4.40 | 5.30 | 97.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.61–1.65 · 2.5% | 4.10–4.40 · 7.3% | 5.00–5.30 · 6.0% | 94.4–96.3% |
How did the Freiburg – Schalke 04 odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 4.10 when odds opened on 21 Sep to 4.40 at kick-off, a 7.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FREIBURG | DRAW | SCHALKE 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 21 Sep (open) | 1.63 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Fri 2 Oct | 1.63 | 4.10 | 5.60 |
| Sun 11 Oct (kick-off) | 1.65 | 4.40 | 5.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 58.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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