Elche – Celta Vigo odds
Celta Vigo went into the match as narrow favourites against Elche.
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Elche – Celta Vigo: closing odds analysis
- Celta Vigo were favourites: the closing odds implied a 38% chance of an away win, 33% for Elche and 29% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Elche 3.17 at VBET, the draw 3.40 at Stake, Celta Vigo 2.62 at Betinia.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Elche drifted from 2.80 at the opening to 3.17 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Elche or Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo, but only just: the closing odds put 4.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Elche – Celta Vigo?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Elche, Stake on the draw and Betinia on Celta Vigo. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.4%) and Mr Green the least (92.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | ELCHE | DRAW | CELTA VIGO | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.40 best price | 2.60 | 97.4% |
| Stake | 3.15 | 3.40 best price | 2.32 | 95.9% |
| VBET | 3.17 best price | 3.23 | 2.36 | 95.3% |
| Oddset | 2.85 | 3.30 | 2.52 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 2.71 | 3.33 | 2.62 best price | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 2.71 | 3.33 | 2.62 best price | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 2.71 | 3.33 | 2.62 best price | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 2.71 | 3.33 | 2.62 best price | 95.1% |
| bwin | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.35 | 94.7% |
| SpreadEx | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.55 | 94.6% |
| 888sport | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.50 | 92.6% |
| Mr Green | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.50 | 92.6% |
| Marathonbet | — | 2.75 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 3.17 | 3.40 | 2.62 | 100.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.71–3.17 · 17.0% | 2.75–3.40 · 23.6% | 2.32–2.62 · 12.9% | 92.6–97.4% |
How did the Elche – Celta Vigo odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Elche drifted from 2.80 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 3.17 at kick-off, a 13.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ELCHE | DRAW | CELTA VIGO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
| Thu 8 Oct | 2.80 | 3.32 | 2.58 |
| Sun 11 Oct (kick-off) | 3.17 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 55.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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