Sunderland – Brighton odds
Brighton went into the match as narrow favourites against Sunderland.
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Sunderland – Brighton: closing odds analysis
- Brighton were favourites: the closing odds implied a 40% chance of an away win, 32% for Sunderland and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Sunderland 3.10 at Stake, the draw 3.45 at Stake, Brighton 2.40 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Sunderland drifted from 2.85 at the opening to 3.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Sunderland or Brighton?
Brighton, but only just: the closing odds put 8.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Sunderland – Brighton?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Sunderland, Stake on the draw and bwin on Brighton. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.2%) and bwin the least (94.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | SUNDERLAND | DRAW | BRIGHTON | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.10 best price | 3.45 best price | 2.34 | 96.2% |
| VBET | 3.02 | 3.33 | 2.39 | 95.3% |
| bwin | 2.87 | 3.40 | 2.40 best price | 94.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.40 | 97.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.87–3.10 · 8.0% | 3.33–3.45 · 3.6% | 2.34–2.40 · 2.6% | 94.4–96.2% |
How did the Sunderland – Brighton odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Sunderland drifted from 2.85 when odds opened on 21 Sep to 3.10 at kick-off, a 8.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SUNDERLAND | DRAW | BRIGHTON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 21 Sep (open) | 2.85 | 3.45 | 2.50 |
| Thu 1 Oct | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.50 |
| Sat 10 Oct (kick-off) | 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 53.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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