Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans odds
Paris Saint-Germain went into the match as heavy favourites against Le Mans.
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Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans: closing odds analysis
- Paris Saint-Germain were favourites: the closing odds implied a 82% chance of a home win, 7% for Le Mans and 12% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Paris Saint-Germain 1.18 at bwin, the draw 8.50 at bwin, Le Mans 16.00 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Le Mans shortened from 26.00 at the opening to 15.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 50% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Paris Saint-Germain or Le Mans?
Paris Saint-Germain, by a distance: the closing odds put 74.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Paris Saint-Germain, bwin on the draw and Stake on Le Mans. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.2%) and VBET the least (94.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN | DRAW | LE MANS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.18 best price | 7.75 | 16.00 best price | 96.2% |
| bwin | 1.18 best price | 8.50 best price | 12.00 | 95.4% |
| VBET | 1.15 | 8.50 best price | 15.00 | 94.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.18 | 8.50 | 16.00 | 97.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.15–1.18 · 2.6% | 7.75–8.50 · 9.7% | 12.00–16.00 · 33.3% | 94.9–96.2% |
How did the Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Le Mans shortened from 26.00 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 15.00 at kick-off, a 42.3% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN | DRAW | LE MANS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 1.08 | 13.50 | 26.00 |
| Thu 8 Oct | 1.09 | 13.00 | 26.00 |
| Sat 10 Oct (kick-off) | 1.18 | 9.00 | 15.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 49.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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