Monaco β Toulouse odds
Monaco went into the match as heavy favourites against Toulouse.
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Monaco β Toulouse: closing odds analysis
- Monaco were favourites: the closing odds implied a 58% chance of a home win, 19% for Toulouse and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Monaco 1.65 at Stake, the draw 4.20 at bwin, Toulouse 5.20 at VBET.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.9%.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Monaco or Toulouse?
Monaco, by a distance: the closing odds put 38.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Monaco β Toulouse?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Monaco, bwin on the draw and VBET on Toulouse. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.9%) and bwin the least (94.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | MONACO | DRAW | TOULOUSE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.65 best price | 4.10 | 5.20 best price | 95.9% |
| Stake | 1.65 best price | 4.20 best price | 4.80 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 1.63 | 4.20 best price | 4.75 | 94.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.65 | 4.20 | 5.20 | 96.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.63β1.65 Β· 1.2% | 4.10β4.20 Β· 2.4% | 4.75β5.20 Β· 9.5% | 94.2β95.9% |
How did the Monaco β Toulouse odds move before kick-off?
The best prices barely moved between the opening on 5 Oct and kick-off: no outcome moved more than 2.0%.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MONACO | DRAW | TOULOUSE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 1.65 | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| Thu 8 Oct | 1.61 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| Sat 10 Oct (kick-off) | 1.65 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 59.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 Γ· decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 Γ· (1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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