Lille – Le Havre odds
Lille went into the match as heavy favourites against Le Havre.
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Lille – Le Havre: closing odds analysis
- Lille were favourites: the closing odds implied a 62% chance of a home win, 17% for Le Havre and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Lille 1.55 at VBET, the draw 4.60 at Stake, Le Havre 5.80 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Le Havre shortened from 6.80 at the opening to 5.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 54% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Lille or Le Havre?
Lille, by a distance: the closing odds put 45.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Lille – Le Havre?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Lille, Stake on the draw and Stake on Le Havre. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.2%) and bwin the least (94.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | LILLE | DRAW | LE HAVRE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.54 | 4.60 best price | 5.80 best price | 96.2% |
| VBET | 1.55 best price | 4.40 | 5.70 | 95.4% |
| bwin | 1.52 | 4.50 | 5.75 | 94.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.55 | 4.60 | 5.80 | 96.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.52–1.55 · 2.0% | 4.40–4.60 · 4.5% | 5.70–5.80 · 1.8% | 94.9–96.2% |
How did the Lille – Le Havre odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Le Havre shortened from 6.80 when odds opened on 21 Sep to 5.80 at kick-off, a 14.7% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LILLE | DRAW | LE HAVRE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 21 Sep (open) | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.80 |
| Thu 1 Oct | 1.45 | 4.75 | 6.80 |
| Sat 10 Oct (kick-off) | 1.55 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 53.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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