Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV odds
Hoffenheim went into the match as heavy favourites against Hamburger SV.
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Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV: closing odds analysis
- Hoffenheim were favourites: the closing odds implied a 68% chance of a home win, 14% for Hamburger SV and 18% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Hoffenheim 1.42 at bwin, the draw 5.80 at Stake, Hamburger SV 7.20 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 5.40 at the opening to 5.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Hoffenheim or Hamburger SV?
Hoffenheim, by a distance: the closing odds put 53.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Hoffenheim, Stake on the draw and Stake on Hamburger SV. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.0%) and bwin the least (94.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | HOFFENHEIM | DRAW | HAMBURGER SV | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.37 | 5.80 best price | 7.20 best price | 96.0% |
| VBET | 1.41 | 5.10 | 6.80 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 1.42 best price | 5.00 | 6.25 | 94.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.42 | 5.80 | 7.20 | 98.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.37–1.42 · 3.6% | 5.00–5.80 · 16.0% | 6.25–7.20 · 15.2% | 94.0–96.0% |
How did the Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 5.40 when odds opened on 21 Sep to 5.80 at kick-off, a 7.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | HOFFENHEIM | DRAW | HAMBURGER SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 21 Sep (open) | 1.39 | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| Thu 1 Oct | 1.43 | 5.25 | 7.10 |
| Sat 10 Oct (kick-off) | 1.42 | 5.80 | 7.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 60.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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