Augsburg – Bayern Munich odds
Bayern Munich went into the match as heavy favourites against Augsburg.
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Augsburg – Bayern Munich: closing odds analysis
- Bayern Munich were favourites: the closing odds implied a 82% chance of an away win, 7% for Augsburg and 11% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Augsburg 15.00 at Stake, the draw 10.00 at Stake, Bayern Munich 1.18 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Augsburg drifted from 9.60 at the opening to 15.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 62% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Augsburg or Bayern Munich?
Bayern Munich, by a distance: the closing odds put 74.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Augsburg – Bayern Munich?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Augsburg, Stake on the draw and bwin on Bayern Munich. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (95.8%) and bwin the least (94.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | AUGSBURG | DRAW | BAYERN MUNICH | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 15.00 best price | 10.00 best price | 1.14 | 95.8% |
| VBET | 14.00 | 8.20 | 1.17 | 95.4% |
| bwin | 10.50 | 9.00 | 1.18 best price | 94.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 15.00 | 10.00 | 1.18 | 98.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 10.50–15.00 · 42.9% | 8.20–10.00 · 22.0% | 1.14–1.18 · 3.5% | 94.9–95.8% |
How did the Augsburg – Bayern Munich odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Augsburg drifted from 9.60 when odds opened on 21 Sep to 15.00 at kick-off, a 56.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AUGSBURG | DRAW | BAYERN MUNICH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 21 Sep (open) | 9.60 | 7.90 | 1.25 |
| Thu 1 Oct | 9.80 | 8.50 | 1.25 |
| Sat 10 Oct (kick-off) | 15.00 | 10.00 | 1.18 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 62.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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