Aston Villa – Brentford odds
Aston Villa and Brentford went into the match almost level in the odds.
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Aston Villa – Brentford: closing odds analysis
- No clear favourite: the closing odds implied 38% for Aston Villa, 27% for a draw and 36% for Brentford.
- Best closing odds: Aston Villa 2.55 at bwin, the draw 3.65 at Stake, Brentford 2.73 at VBET.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Brentford drifted from 2.57 at the opening to 2.73 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Aston Villa or Brentford?
Neither side, really: the closing odds put only 2.2 percentage points between Aston Villa and Brentford.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Aston Villa – Brentford?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Aston Villa, Stake on the draw and VBET on Brentford. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.5%) and bwin the least (94.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | ASTON VILLA | DRAW | BRENTFORD | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.55 best price | 3.65 best price | 2.70 | 96.5% |
| VBET | 2.51 | 3.64 | 2.73 best price | 96.2% |
| bwin | 2.55 best price | 3.50 | 2.65 | 94.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.55 | 3.65 | 2.73 | 96.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.51–2.55 · 1.6% | 3.50–3.65 · 4.3% | 2.65–2.73 · 3.0% | 94.8–96.5% |
How did the Aston Villa – Brentford odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Brentford drifted from 2.57 when odds opened on 5 Oct to 2.73 at kick-off, a 6.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ASTON VILLA | DRAW | BRENTFORD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct (open) | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.57 |
| Wed 7 Oct | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.57 |
| Sat 10 Oct (kick-off) | 2.55 | 3.65 | 2.73 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 60.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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