Schalke 04 – SV Elversberg odds
Schalke 04 went into the match as clear favourites against SV Elversberg.
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Schalke 04 – SV Elversberg: closing odds analysis
- Schalke 04 were favourites: the closing odds implied a 46% chance of a home win, 28% for SV Elversberg and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Schalke 04 2.06 at Stake, the draw 3.70 at bwin, SV Elversberg 3.47 at VBET.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on SV Elversberg shortened from 4.10 at the opening to 3.47 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 65% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Schalke 04 or SV Elversberg?
Schalke 04, clearly: the closing odds put 18.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Schalke 04 – SV Elversberg?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Schalke 04, bwin on the draw and VBET on SV Elversberg. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (94.5%) and VBET the least (92.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | SCHALKE 04 | DRAW | SV ELVERSBERG | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.06 best price | 3.70 best price | 3.30 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 2.05 | 3.70 best price | 3.25 | 93.8% |
| VBET | 1.99 | 3.45 | 3.47 best price | 92.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.06 | 3.70 | 3.47 | 95.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.99–2.06 · 3.5% | 3.45–3.70 · 7.2% | 3.25–3.47 · 6.8% | 92.5–94.5% |
How did the Schalke 04 – SV Elversberg odds move before kick-off?
The best price on SV Elversberg shortened from 4.10 when odds opened on 7 Sep to 3.47 at kick-off, a 15.4% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SCHALKE 04 | DRAW | SV ELVERSBERG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 Sep (open) | 1.85 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| Mon 14 Sep | 2.11 | 3.65 | 3.41 |
| Sun 20 Sep (kick-off) | 2.06 | 3.70 | 3.47 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 64.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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