Man City – Sunderland odds
Man City went into the match as heavy favourites against Sunderland.
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Man City – Sunderland: closing odds analysis
- Man City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 73% chance of a home win, 11% for Sunderland and 17% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Man City 1.30 at bwin, the draw 6.00 at bwin, Sunderland 9.00 at Stake.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Sunderland shortened from 10.00 at the opening to 9.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 46% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Man City or Sunderland?
Man City, by a distance: the closing odds put 62.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Man City – Sunderland?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Man City, bwin on the draw and Stake on Sunderland. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (95.2%) and VBET the least (92.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | MAN CITY | DRAW | SUNDERLAND | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 1.30 best price | 6.00 best price | 8.75 | 95.2% |
| Stake | 1.29 | 5.60 | 9.00 best price | 93.9% |
| VBET | 1.27 | 5.40 | 9.00 best price | 92.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.30 | 6.00 | 9.00 | 95.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.27–1.30 · 2.4% | 5.40–6.00 · 11.1% | 8.75–9.00 · 2.9% | 92.3–95.2% |
How did the Man City – Sunderland odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Sunderland shortened from 10.00 when odds opened on 7 Sep to 9.00 at kick-off, a 10.0% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MAN CITY | DRAW | SUNDERLAND |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 Sep (open) | 1.28 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Sun 13 Sep | 1.28 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Sun 20 Sep (kick-off) | 1.30 | 6.00 | 9.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 46.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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