AC Horsens – AGF odds
AGF went into the match as clear favourites against AC Horsens.
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AC Horsens – AGF: closing odds analysis
- AGF were favourites: the closing odds implied a 50% chance of an away win, 25% for AC Horsens and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AC Horsens 3.86 at VBET, the draw 3.70 at bwin, AGF 1.90 at bwin.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.1%.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AC Horsens or AGF?
AGF, clearly: the closing odds put 24.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AC Horsens – AGF?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on AC Horsens, bwin on the draw and bwin on AGF. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.1%) and VBET the least (92.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | AC HORSENS | DRAW | AGF | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 3.75 | 3.70 best price | 1.90 best price | 94.1% |
| Stake | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.89 | 92.8% |
| VBET | 3.86 best price | 3.60 | 1.84 | 92.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.86 | 3.70 | 1.90 | 94.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.70–3.86 · 4.3% | 3.60–3.70 · 2.8% | 1.84–1.90 · 3.3% | 92.6–94.1% |
How did the AC Horsens – AGF odds move before kick-off?
The best prices barely moved between the opening on 14 Sep and kick-off: no outcome moved more than 1.0%.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AC HORSENS | DRAW | AGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 14 Sep (open) | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.89 |
| Thu 17 Sep | 3.86 | 3.70 | 1.93 |
| Sun 20 Sep (kick-off) | 3.86 | 3.70 | 1.90 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 56.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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