Werder Bremen – Augsburg odds
Werder Bremen went into the match as narrow favourites against Augsburg.
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Werder Bremen – Augsburg: closing odds analysis
- Werder Bremen were favourites: the closing odds implied a 41% chance of a home win, 34% for Augsburg and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Werder Bremen 2.31 at Stake, the draw 3.80 at Stake, Augsburg 2.75 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.4%.
- The closing odds implied a 68% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Werder Bremen or Augsburg?
Werder Bremen, but only just: the closing odds put 7.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Werder Bremen – Augsburg?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Werder Bremen, Stake on the draw and bwin on Augsburg. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (94.4%) and VBET the least (92.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | WERDER BREMEN | DRAW | AUGSBURG | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.31 best price | 3.80 best price | 2.75 best price | 94.4% |
| bwin | 2.25 | 3.75 | 2.75 best price | 93.0% |
| VBET | 2.24 | 3.72 | 2.74 | 92.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.31 | 3.80 | 2.75 | 94.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.24–2.31 · 3.1% | 3.72–3.80 · 2.2% | 2.74–2.75 · 0.4% | 92.6–94.4% |
How did the Werder Bremen – Augsburg odds move before kick-off?
The best prices barely moved between the opening on 7 Sep and kick-off: no outcome moved more than 1.8%.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | WERDER BREMEN | DRAW | AUGSBURG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 Sep (open) | 2.33 | 3.81 | 2.80 |
| Sun 13 Sep | 2.36 | 3.79 | 2.80 |
| Sat 19 Sep (kick-off) | 2.31 | 3.80 | 2.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 67.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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