Toulouse – Le Havre odds
Toulouse went into the match as heavy favourites against Le Havre.
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Toulouse – Le Havre: closing odds analysis
- Toulouse were favourites: the closing odds implied a 54% chance of a home win, 21% for Le Havre and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Toulouse 1.75 at bwin, the draw 3.75 at bwin, Le Havre 4.60 at Stake.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Le Havre drifted from 4.40 at the opening to 4.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 51% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Toulouse or Le Havre?
Toulouse, by a distance: the closing odds put 33.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Toulouse – Le Havre?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Toulouse, bwin on the draw and Stake on Le Havre. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.3%) and VBET the least (92.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | TOULOUSE | DRAW | LE HAVRE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 1.75 best price | 3.75 best price | 4.50 | 94.3% |
| Stake | 1.74 | 3.70 | 4.60 best price | 94.1% |
| VBET | 1.70 | 3.67 | 4.60 best price | 92.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.60 | 94.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.70–1.75 · 2.9% | 3.67–3.75 · 2.2% | 4.50–4.60 · 2.2% | 92.8–94.3% |
How did the Toulouse – Le Havre odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Le Havre drifted from 4.40 when odds opened on 7 Sep to 4.60 at kick-off, a 4.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | TOULOUSE | DRAW | LE HAVRE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 Sep (open) | 1.83 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Sun 13 Sep | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| Sat 19 Sep (kick-off) | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 51.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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