Tottenham – Aston Villa odds
Tottenham went into the match as clear favourites against Aston Villa.
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Tottenham – Aston Villa: closing odds analysis
- Tottenham were favourites: the closing odds implied a 47% chance of a home win, 26% for Aston Villa and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Tottenham 2.03 at Stake, the draw 3.60 at bwin, Aston Villa 3.70 at bwin.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.0%.
- The closing odds implied a 56% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Tottenham or Aston Villa?
Tottenham, clearly: the closing odds put 21.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Tottenham – Aston Villa?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Tottenham, bwin on the draw and bwin on Aston Villa. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (95.0%) and VBET the least (92.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | TOTTENHAM | DRAW | ASTON VILLA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 1.98 | 3.60 best price | 3.70 best price | 95.0% |
| Stake | 2.03 best price | 3.55 | 3.55 | 94.7% |
| VBET | 1.94 | 3.53 | 3.56 | 92.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.03 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 96.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.94–2.03 · 4.6% | 3.53–3.60 · 2.0% | 3.55–3.70 · 4.2% | 92.6–95.0% |
How did the Tottenham – Aston Villa odds move before kick-off?
The best prices barely moved between the opening on 7 Sep and kick-off: no outcome moved more than 1.5%.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | TOTTENHAM | DRAW | ASTON VILLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 Sep (open) | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| Sun 13 Sep | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Sat 19 Sep (kick-off) | 2.03 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 56.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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