Millwall – West Ham odds
West Ham went into the match as heavy favourites against Millwall.
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Millwall – West Ham: closing odds analysis
- West Ham were favourites: the closing odds implied a 50% chance of an away win, 24% for Millwall and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Millwall 4.00 at bwin, the draw 3.80 at Stake, West Ham 1.93 at bwin.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 93.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw shortened from 3.90 at the opening to 3.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Millwall or West Ham?
West Ham, by a distance: the closing odds put 26.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Millwall – West Ham?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Millwall, Stake on the draw and bwin on West Ham. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (93.4%) and VBET the least (88.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | MILLWALL | DRAW | WEST HAM | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 4.00 best price | 3.30 | 1.93 best price | 93.4% |
| Stake | 3.80 | 3.80 best price | 1.82 | 93.0% |
| VBET | 3.84 | 3.40 | 1.74 | 88.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.93 | 97.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.80–4.00 · 5.3% | 3.30–3.80 · 15.2% | 1.74–1.93 · 10.9% | 88.6–93.4% |
How did the Millwall – West Ham odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw shortened from 3.90 when odds opened on 15 Sep to 3.80 at kick-off, a 2.6% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MILLWALL | DRAW | WEST HAM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 15 Sep (open) | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.93 |
| Thu 17 Sep | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.95 |
| Sat 19 Sep (kick-off) | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.93 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 60.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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