Cardiff City – Charlton Athletic odds
Cardiff City went into the match as heavy favourites against Charlton Athletic.
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Cardiff City – Charlton Athletic: closing odds analysis
- Cardiff City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 53% chance of a home win, 23% for Charlton Athletic and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Cardiff City 1.90 at bwin, the draw 3.97 at VBET, Charlton Athletic 4.10 at bwin.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Charlton Athletic shortened from 4.20 at the opening to 4.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Cardiff City or Charlton Athletic?
Cardiff City, by a distance: the closing odds put 29.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Cardiff City – Charlton Athletic?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Cardiff City, VBET on the draw and bwin on Charlton Athletic. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.0%) and VBET the least (88.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | CARDIFF CITY | DRAW | CHARLTON ATHLETIC | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 1.90 best price | 3.40 | 4.10 best price | 94.0% |
| Stake | 1.72 | 3.95 | 4.10 best price | 92.7% |
| VBET | 1.62 | 3.97 best price | 3.83 | 88.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.90 | 3.97 | 4.10 | 97.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.62–1.90 · 17.3% | 3.40–3.97 · 16.8% | 3.83–4.10 · 7.0% | 88.5–94.0% |
How did the Cardiff City – Charlton Athletic odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Charlton Athletic shortened from 4.20 when odds opened on 15 Sep to 4.10 at kick-off, a 2.4% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CARDIFF CITY | DRAW | CHARLTON ATHLETIC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 15 Sep (open) | 1.87 | 3.98 | 4.20 |
| Thu 17 Sep | 1.87 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Sat 19 Sep (kick-off) | 1.90 | 3.97 | 4.10 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 57.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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