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CHAMPIONSHIP · FRI 18 SEP · 21:00

Bristol City – Watford odds

Bristol City went into the match as clear favourites against Watford.

176 markets · closing odds across 3 bookmakers
FINISHEDThis match has finished. The prices below are the closing odds recorded before kick-off — they are archival and not comparable to live prices.
WHAT THE CLOSING ODDS IMPLIED
Bristol City 45%Draw 26%Watford 29%
CLOSING PAYOUT · MATCH RESULT
107.6%
vs 89.9% average
KICK-OFF

Full Time

Match Result

3 outcomes
Bristol City2.55
Draw3.60
Watford3.85

Double Chance

3 outcomes
Bristol City / Draw1.26
Bristol City / Watford1.30
Draw / Watford1.93

Over/Under 0.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 0.51.44
Under 0.52.65

Over/Under 1.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 1.51.62
Under 1.52.10

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 2.53.10
Under 2.51.30

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 3.51.83
Under 3.51.80

Over/Under 4.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 4.52.87
Under 4.51.34

Over/Under 5.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 5.52.45
Under 5.51.46

Over/Under 6.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 6.52.40
Under 6.51.47

Over/Under 7.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 7.51.14
Under 7.54.80

Over/Under 8.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 8.51.27
Under 8.53.25

Over/Under 9.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 9.51.49
Under 9.52.35

Over/Under 10.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 10.51.80
Under 10.51.83

Over/Under 11.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 11.52.30
Under 11.51.52

Over/Under 12.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 12.53.00
Under 12.51.31

Over/Under 13.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 13.54.20
Under 13.51.18

Both Teams to Score

2 outcomes
Yes1.73
No2.01

Draw No Bet

2 outcomes
Bristol City1.41
Watford2.85

Away No Bet

2 outcomes
Bristol City1.40
Draw2.75

Watford to Score & Result

5 outcomes
Yes & Bristol City3.68
No & Bristol City3.20
Yes & Draw4.50
No & Draw8.30
Yes & Watford3.77

Both Teams to Score & Either Team to Win

2 outcomes
Yes2.55
No1.44

Both Teams to Score in Both Halves

2 outcomes
Yes12.00
No1.03

Both Teams to Score 1st Half / 2nd Half

4 outcomes
Yes/Yes15.00
Yes/No5.60
No/Yes3.90
No/No1.56

Double Chance & Both Teams to Score

6 outcomes
1X & Yes2.15
1X & No2.60
12 & Yes2.55
12 & No2.25
X2 & Yes2.95
X2 & No4.60

Both Halves Won by Different Teams

2 outcomes
Yes4.57
No1.16

Draw in at Least One Half

2 outcomes
Yes1.52
No2.37

Exact Goals

7 outcomes
013.00
14.90
23.47
33.83
45.20
59.20
6+8.30

Watford Exact Goals

4 outcomes
02.65
12.42
24.30
3+8.80

Exact Number of Goals

9 outcomes
No goal11.00
1 goal4.75
2 goals3.40
3 goals3.90
4 goals5.25
5 goals9.00
6 goals16.50
7 goals31.00
8 or more goals46.00

Bristol City Exact Goals

4 outcomes
04.60
12.80
23.35
3+3.70

First Goal Method

6 outcomes
By Header5.90
By Other Method1.38
By Free Kick17.00
By Penalty Kick7.30
Own Goal34.00
No Goal10.00

First Team to Score & Result

7 outcomes
Bristol City & Bristol City—
Bristol City & Draw—
Bristol City & Watford—
Watford & Bristol City—
Watford & Draw—
Watford & Watford—
No Goal8.30

Total Goal Bands

4 outcomes
0 or 13.35
2 or 31.92
4 to 63.08
7 or more29.00

Watford Goal Bands

4 outcomes
0 or 11.30
2 or 33.09
4 to 625.00
7 or more351.00

Bristol City Goal Bands

4 outcomes
0 or 11.82
2 or 32.12
4 to 68.10
7 or more251.00

Goal in Both Halves

2 outcomes
Yes1.65
No1.95

Goal Range

4 outcomes
0-13.65
2-31.96
4-53.60
6+13.00

1st Half / 2nd Half Result

9 outcomes
Bristol City / Bristol City3.50
Bristol City / Draw3.90
Bristol City / Watford5.40
Draw / Bristol City3.38
Draw / Draw3.79
Draw / Watford5.20
Watford / Bristol City5.60
Watford / Draw6.20
Watford / Watford8.60

Watford Highest Scoring Half

3 outcomes
1st Half3.85
2nd Half2.85
Equal2.13

Highest Scoring Half Double Chance

3 outcomes
1st or Equal1.66
1st or 2nd1.27
2nd or Equal1.35

Bristol City Highest Scoring Half

3 outcomes
1st Half3.25
2nd Half2.47
Equal2.75

Home No Bet

2 outcomes
Draw1.78
Watford1.92

Bristol City to Score & Result

5 outcomes
Yes & Bristol City1.81
Yes & Draw4.50
No & Draw8.30
Yes & Watford7.20
No & Watford7.00

Last Team to Score

3 outcomes
Bristol City1.66
Watford2.50
No Goal13.00

Watford Multigoal Interval

7 outcomes
1-21.62
1-31.46
1-41.43
2-33.09
2-43.02
3-48.60
Any Other2.52

Bristol City Multigoal Interval

7 outcomes
1-21.58
1-31.29
1-41.19
2-32.12
2-41.92
3-44.00
Any Other3.93

Watford Multigoals

5 outcomes
1-21.51
1-31.38
2-32.80
4+28.00
No Goal2.65

Bristol City Multigoals

5 outcomes
1-21.48
1-31.25
2-31.95
4+7.60
No Goal4.60

Result & Both Teams to Score

6 outcomes
Bristol City & Yes3.60
Bristol City & No3.15
Draw & Yes4.40
Draw & No11.00
Watford & Yes6.90
Watford & No6.50

Result & Exact Total Goals

12 outcomes
Bristol City & 1 goal6.30
Bristol City & 2 goals9.10
Bristol City & 3 goals5.40
Bristol City & 4+ goals4.90
Draw & 0 goals8.30
Draw & 2 goals6.40
Draw & 4 goals13.00
Draw & 6+ goals51.00
Watford & 1 goal8.70
Watford & 2 goals21.00
Watford & 3 goals11.00
Watford & 4+ goals12.00

Watford to Score in Both Halves

2 outcomes
Yes4.75
No1.15

Bristol City to Score in Both Halves

2 outcomes
Yes2.80
No1.39

Score Draw

2 outcomes
Yes4.30
No1.18

Watford to Score 1st Half / 2nd Half

4 outcomes
Yes/Yes4.75
Yes/No3.47
No/Yes2.64
No/No2.32

Bristol City to Score 1st Half / 2nd Half

4 outcomes
Yes/Yes2.75
Yes/No3.39
No/Yes2.68
No/No3.83

Watford Odd/Even Goals

2 outcomes
Odd2.07
Even1.68

Bristol City Odd/Even Goals

2 outcomes
Odd1.91
Even1.79

Watford to Score

2 outcomes
Yes1.40
No2.53

Bristol City to Score

2 outcomes
Yes1.16
No4.20

Watford to Win 1st Half and Not Win the Match

2 outcomes
Yes8.20
No1.04

Bristol City to Win 1st Half and Not Win the Match

2 outcomes
Yes8.70
No1.03

Result & Both Teams to Score (Yes only)

3 outcomes
Bristol City & Yes3.60
Watford & Yes6.75
Draw & Yes4.40

Watford Win by 1 or Draw

2 outcomes
Yes2.27
No1.56

Bristol City Win by 1 or Draw

2 outcomes
Yes1.84
No1.86

Watford Win by 2 or 3

2 outcomes
Yes7.85
No1.05

Bristol City Win by 2 or 3

2 outcomes
Yes3.75
No1.23

Watford to Win Either Half

2 outcomes
Yes2.37
No1.56

Bristol City to Win Either Half

2 outcomes
Yes1.47
No2.50

Winning Margin

7 outcomes
Bristol City by 1—
Bristol City by 2—
Bristol City by 3+—
Watford by 1—
Watford by 2—
Watford by 3+—
Draw3.60

Watford Winning Margin

4 outcomes
by 15.35
by 28.70
by 326.00
by 4+76.00

Winning Margin (with Draw Split)

10 outcomes
Bristol City by exactly 13.60
Bristol City by exactly 25.25
Bristol City by exactly 39.25
Bristol City by 4 or more13.50
Watford by exactly 15.50
Watford by exactly 211.50
Watford by exactly 323.00
Watford by 4 or more46.00
Score draw4.40
No goal11.00

Bristol City Winning Margin

4 outcomes
by 13.47
by 25.10
by 37.85
by 4+9.40

Both Halves Over 1.5

2 outcomes
Yes4.90
No1.14

Both Halves Under 1.5

2 outcomes
Yes2.48
No1.46

Double Chance & Over/Under 1.5

6 outcomes
1X & Over 1.51.57
1X & Under 1.54.80
12 & Over 1.51.62
12 & Under 1.54.75
X2 & Over 1.52.50
X2 & Under 1.56.25

Result & Over/Under 1.5

6 outcomes
Bristol City & Over 1.52.20
Bristol City & Under 1.57.00
Draw & Over 1.54.40
Draw & Under 1.511.00
Watford & Over 1.55.00
Watford & Under 1.510.50

Both Teams to Score & Over/Under 2.5

4 outcomes
Yes & Over 2.52.20
Yes & Under 2.56.25
No & Over 2.57.50
No & Under 2.52.50

Double Chance & Over/Under 2.5

6 outcomes
1X & Over 2.52.35
1X & Under 2.52.35
12 & Over 2.52.00
12 & Under 2.52.95
X2 & Over 2.54.33
X2 & Under 2.53.10

Result & Over/Under 2.5

6 outcomes
Bristol City & Over 2.52.75
Bristol City & Under 2.54.20
Draw & Over 2.511.00
Draw & Under 2.54.50
Watford & Over 2.56.00
Watford & Under 2.57.50

Both Teams to Score & Over/Under 3.5

4 outcomes
Yes & Over 3.53.40
Yes & Under 3.53.10
No & Over 3.516.00
No & Under 3.52.15

Double Chance & Over/Under 3.5

6 outcomes
1X & Over 3.53.70
1X & Under 3.51.73
12 & Over 3.53.75
12 & Under 3.51.77
X2 & Over 3.56.50
X2 & Under 3.52.50

Result & Over/Under 3.5

6 outcomes
Bristol City & Over 3.54.80
Bristol City & Under 3.52.55
Draw & Over 3.511.00
Draw & Under 3.54.50
Watford & Over 3.512.00
Watford & Under 3.54.75

Both Teams to Score & Over/Under 4.5

4 outcomes
Yes & Over 4.56.25
Yes & Under 4.52.20
No & Over 4.534.00
No & Under 4.52.00

Double Chance & Over/Under 4.5

6 outcomes
1X & Over 4.57.25
1X & Under 4.51.42
12 & Over 4.56.25
12 & Under 4.51.51
X2 & Over 4.514.50
X2 & Under 4.52.10

Result & Over/Under 4.5

6 outcomes
Bristol City & Over 4.57.75
Bristol City & Under 4.52.15
Draw & Over 4.536.00
Draw & Under 4.53.60
Watford & Over 4.517.50
Watford & Under 4.54.20

Both Teams to Score & Over/Under 5.5

4 outcomes
Yes & Over 5.512.00
Yes & Under 5.51.90
No & Over 5.561.00
No & Under 5.52.00

Handicap -2

3 outcomes
Bristol City (-2)7.00
Draw5.75
Watford (+2)1.34

Handicap -1

3 outcomes
Bristol City (-1)3.30
Draw3.80
Watford (+1)1.98

Handicap +1

3 outcomes
Bristol City (+1)1.27
Draw6.00
Watford (-1)9.50

Asian Total 2

2 outcomes
Over 21.40
Under 22.90

Asian Total 2.25

2 outcomes
Over 2.251.61
Under 2.252.28

Asian Total 2.5

2 outcomes
Over 2.51.82
Under 2.51.96

Asian Total 2.75

2 outcomes
Over 2.752.04
Under 2.751.76

Asian Total 3

2 outcomes
Over 32.40
Under 31.55

Bristol City Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes
Over 0.51.18
Under 0.54.60

Bristol City Over/Under 1.5

2 outcomes
Over 1.51.86
Under 1.51.85

Bristol City Over/Under 2.5

2 outcomes
Over 2.53.70
Under 2.51.25

Watford Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes
Over 0.51.43
Under 0.52.65

Watford Over/Under 1.5

2 outcomes
Over 1.53.00
Under 1.51.34

Watford Over/Under 2.5

2 outcomes
Over 2.58.80
Under 2.51.07

Odd/Even Goals

2 outcomes
Odd1.94
Even1.84

Bristol City Win to Nil

2 outcomes
Yes3.20
No1.31

Watford Win to Nil

2 outcomes
Yes7.00
No1.09

Bristol City Clean Sheet

2 outcomes
Yes2.65
No1.43

Watford Clean Sheet

2 outcomes
Yes4.60
No1.18

Half Time / Full Time

9 outcomes
Bristol City / Bristol City2.85
Bristol City / Draw14.00
Bristol City / Watford34.00
Draw / Bristol City5.25
Draw / Draw5.75
Draw / Watford9.25
Watford / Bristol City21.00
Watford / Draw14.00
Watford / Watford6.25

Bristol City to Win Both Halves

2 outcomes
Yes5.00
No1.15

Watford to Win Both Halves

2 outcomes
Yes10.00
No1.02

First Team to Score

3 outcomes
Bristol City1.66
Watford2.50
No goal13.00

Highest Scoring Half

3 outcomes
1st half3.10
2nd half2.11
Equal3.51

Correct Score

52 outcomes
0-013.00
0-112.00
0-220.00
0-350.00
0-4201.00
1-08.00
1-17.00
1-212.50
1-330.00
1-4126.00
2-09.00
2-18.00
2-213.50
2-340.00
2-4126.00
3-014.50
3-114.00
3-224.00
3-360.00
3-4251.00
4-035.00
4-130.00
4-260.00
4-3151.00
4-4501.00
Any other score21.00
5-071.00
6-091.00
7-0151.00
8-0301.00
5-171.00
6-181.00
7-1151.00
8-1251.00
5-2111.00
6-2151.00
7-2201.00
5-3226.00
6-3176.00
8-3276.00
5-4301.00
0-5301.00
1-5251.00
2-5276.00
3-5301.00
4-5301.00
0-6226.00
1-6226.00
2-6251.00
5-5301.00
6-4276.00
3-6251.00

Penalty Awarded

2 outcomes
Yes3.75
No1.23

1st Half

1st Half — Match Result

3 outcomes
Bristol City2.44
Draw2.26
Watford4.40

1st Half — Double Chance

3 outcomes
Bristol City / Draw1.22
Bristol City / Watford1.58
Draw / Watford1.53

1st Half — Both Teams to Score

2 outcomes
Yes4.30
No1.21

1st Half — Draw No Bet

2 outcomes
Bristol City1.46
Watford2.55

1st Half — Total Goal Bands

4 outcomes
0 or 11.42
2 or 32.70
4 to 617.00
7 or more29.00

1st Half — Last Team to Score

3 outcomes
Bristol City2.04
Watford3.27
No Goal2.85

1st Half — Watford Multigoal Interval

7 outcomes
1-22.46
1-32.40
1-42.40
2-35.90
2-49.60
3-456.00
Any Other1.47

1st Half — Bristol City Multigoal Interval

7 outcomes
1-21.85
1-31.74
1-41.72
2-34.10
2-44.60
3-417.00
Any Other1.92

1st Half — Multigoal Interval

7 outcomes
1-21.59
1-31.40
1-41.35
2-32.70
2-42.59
3-46.70
Any Other2.92

1st Half — Over/Under 0.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 0.51.32
Under 0.52.85

1st Half — Result & Both Teams to Score

6 outcomes
Bristol City & Yes7.60
Bristol City & No2.65
Draw & Yes4.60
Draw & No2.85
Watford & Yes12.00
Watford & No4.57

1st Half — Watford to Score

2 outcomes
Yes2.35
No1.47

1st Half — Bristol City to Score

2 outcomes
Yes1.72
No1.96

1st Half — Asian Total 1

2 outcomes
Over 11.73
Under 11.99

1st Half — Bristol City Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes
Over 0.51.77
Under 0.51.95

1st Half — Watford Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes
Over 0.52.40
Under 0.51.51

1st Half — Odd/Even Goals

2 outcomes
Odd2.03
Even1.70

1st Half — Bristol City Win to Nil

2 outcomes
Yes2.65
No1.42

1st Half — Watford Win to Nil

2 outcomes
Yes4.57
No1.16

1st Half — Bristol City Clean Sheet

2 outcomes
Yes1.51
No2.40

1st Half — Watford Clean Sheet

2 outcomes
Yes1.95
No1.77

1st Half — First Team to Score

3 outcomes
Bristol City2.17
Watford3.40
No goal3.10

1st Half — Correct Score

17 outcomes
0-03.10
0-16.20
0-222.00
0-3111.00
1-03.90
1-17.30
1-229.00
1-3141.00
2-09.00
2-118.00
2-280.00
2-3251.00
3-029.00
3-156.00
3-2201.00
3-3301.00
Any other score14.00

2nd Half

2nd Half — Match Result

3 outcomes
Bristol City2.23
Draw2.60
Watford3.85

2nd Half — Double Chance

3 outcomes
Bristol City / Draw1.23
Bristol City / Watford1.45
Draw / Watford1.61

2nd Half — Both Teams to Score

2 outcomes
Yes3.30
No1.30

2nd Half — Draw No Bet

2 outcomes
Bristol City1.49
Watford2.50

2nd Half — Total Goal Bands

4 outcomes
0 or 11.60
2 or 32.16
4 to 69.00
7 or more29.00

2nd Half — Last Team to Score

3 outcomes
Bristol City1.93
Watford2.92
No Goal3.75

2nd Half — Watford Multigoal Interval

7 outcomes
1-22.10
1-32.01
1-42.00
2-35.00
2-46.50
3-429.00
Any Other1.66

2nd Half — Bristol City Multigoal Interval

7 outcomes
1-21.70
1-31.57
1-41.54
2-33.39
2-43.55
3-411.00
Any Other2.22

2nd Half — Multigoal Interval

7 outcomes
1-21.58
1-31.32
1-41.25
2-32.37
2-42.08
3-44.60
Any Other3.51

2nd Half — Over/Under 0.5 Goals

2 outcomes
Over 0.51.20
Under 0.53.75

2nd Half — Result & Both Teams to Score

6 outcomes
Bristol City & Yes5.50
Bristol City & No2.65
Draw & Yes3.93
Draw & No3.75
Watford & Yes8.20
Watford & No4.57

2nd Half — Watford to Score

2 outcomes
Yes2.02
No1.67

2nd Half — Bristol City to Score

2 outcomes
Yes1.55
No2.23

2nd Half — Asian Total 1.5

2 outcomes
Over 1.52.04
Under 1.51.71

2nd Half — Bristol City Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes
Over 0.51.57
Under 0.52.27

2nd Half — Watford Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes
Over 0.52.02
Under 0.51.71

2nd Half — Odd/Even Goals

2 outcomes
Odd1.92
Even1.76

2nd Half — Bristol City Win to Nil

2 outcomes
Yes2.65
No1.42

2nd Half — Watford Win to Nil

2 outcomes
Yes4.57
No1.15

2nd Half — Bristol City Clean Sheet

2 outcomes
Yes1.71
No2.00

2nd Half — Watford Clean Sheet

2 outcomes
Yes2.27
No1.55

2nd Half — First Team to Score

3 outcomes
Bristol City1.97
Watford2.92
No goal4.20

2nd Half — Correct Score

17 outcomes
0-04.20
0-15.90
0-217.00
0-371.00
1-04.00
1-16.40
1-220.00
1-376.00
2-08.00
2-114.00
2-245.00
2-3151.00
3-023.00
3-134.00
3-2101.00
3-3301.00
Any other score8.20

Corners

1st Half — First Corner (3-Way)

3 outcomes
Bristol City—
Watford—
No corner90.00

Corners Result

3 outcomes
Bristol City1.51
Draw7.20
Watford2.86

1st Half — Corners Result

3 outcomes
Bristol City1.66
Draw4.80
Watford2.93

Total Corners Bands

5 outcomes
5 or less14.00
6 - 83.64
9 - 112.38
12 - 143.09
15 or more5.50

Watford Corner Bands

4 outcomes
0-24.37
3-42.78
5-63.31
7+4.02

Total Corners Range (3-Way)

3 outcomes
0-83.37
9-112.84
12+2.27

Bristol City Corner Bands

4 outcomes
0-210.27
3-43.98
5-63.14
7+2.12

Half with the Most Corners

3 outcomes
1st Half2.57
2nd Half1.68
Equal7.90

Corners Odd/Even

2 outcomes
Odd1.80
Even1.80

1st Half — Watford Exact Corners

4 outcomes
0-12.33
23.60
34.90
4+4.30

1st Half — Bristol City Exact Corners

4 outcomes
0-13.55
24.10
34.40
4+2.60

First Corner

2 outcomes
Bristol City1.60
Watford2.20

Last Corner

2 outcomes
Bristol City1.66
Watford2.11

1st Half — Last Corner (3-Way)

3 outcomes
Bristol City—
Watford—
None90.00

Cards

Yellow Cards Result

3 outcomes
Bristol City2.65
Draw3.89
Watford1.95

Yellow Cards Double Chance

3 outcomes
1X1.65
121.21
X21.42

First Yellow Card

2 outcomes
Bristol City1.97
Watford1.73

Last Yellow Card

2 outcomes
Bristol City1.97
Watford1.73

Bristol City – Watford: closing odds analysis

By OddsStat odds data · Closing prices at kick-off, · 3 bookmakers licensed in Denmark

KEY FACTS · AT KICK-OFF
  • Bristol City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 45% chance of a home win, 29% for Watford and 26% for a draw.
  • Best closing odds: Bristol City 2.55 at bwin, the draw 3.60 at Stake, Watford 3.85 at Stake.
  • Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 93.5%.
  • Odds movement: the best price on Bristol City drifted from 2.05 at the opening to 2.55 at kick-off.
  • The closing odds implied a 54% chance that both teams score.

Who were the favourites, Bristol City or Watford?

Bristol City, clearly: the closing odds put 15.6 percentage points between the two sides.

Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Bristol City – Watford?

It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Bristol City, Stake on the draw and Stake on Watford. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (93.5%) and bwin the least (87.7%).

Bristol City – Watford: closing match result odds and payout by bookmaker
BOOKMAKERBRISTOL CITYDRAWWATFORDPAYOUT
Stake1.883.60 best price3.85 best price93.5%
VBET1.763.373.7788.5%
bwin2.55 best price3.402.2087.7%
BEST PRICE2.553.603.85107.6%
SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH1.76–2.55 · 44.9%3.37–3.60 · 6.8%2.20–3.85 · 75.0%87.7–93.5%
Closing odds: the last prices recorded before kick-off · — = no price from that bookmaker.
Watford had the widest spread: 2.20 to 3.85 across 3 bookmakers, a difference of 75.0%.

How did the Bristol City – Watford odds move before kick-off?

The best price on Bristol City drifted from 2.05 when odds opened on 14 Sep to 2.55 at kick-off, a 24.4% rise.

BEST PRICE, DAILY
2.003.004.0014 Sep16 Sep18 Sep3.853.602.55
DATA
BEST PRICE ATBRISTOL CITYDRAWWATFORD
Mon 14 Sep (open)2.053.503.80
Wed 16 Sep2.053.603.77
Fri 18 Sep (kick-off)2.553.603.85

How many goals did the odds expect?

Both teams to score was priced at 53.8%.

  • Both teams score54%
What the odds imply for each goal line in Bristol City – Watford.
How we calculate

Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.

Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.

Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.

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