Bayern Munich – Union Berlin odds
Bayern Munich went into the match as heavy favourites against Union Berlin.
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Bayern Munich – Union Berlin: closing odds analysis
- Bayern Munich were favourites: the closing odds implied a 89% chance of a home win, 4% for Union Berlin and 7% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Bayern Munich 1.08 at bwin, the draw 15.00 at Stake, Union Berlin 28.00 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Union Berlin drifted from 16.00 at the opening to 28.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 52% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Bayern Munich or Union Berlin?
Bayern Munich, by a distance: the closing odds put 85.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Bayern Munich – Union Berlin?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Bayern Munich, Stake on the draw and Stake on Union Berlin. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (95.6%) and VBET the least (94.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | BAYERN MUNICH | DRAW | UNION BERLIN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.06 | 15.00 best price | 28.00 best price | 95.6% |
| bwin | 1.08 best price | 13.00 | 18.50 | 94.6% |
| VBET | 1.05 | 15.00 best price | 25.00 | 94.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.08 | 15.00 | 28.00 | 97.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.05–1.08 · 2.9% | 13.00–15.00 · 15.4% | 18.50–28.00 · 51.4% | 94.4–95.6% |
How did the Bayern Munich – Union Berlin odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Union Berlin drifted from 16.00 when odds opened on 7 Sep to 28.00 at kick-off, a 75.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BAYERN MUNICH | DRAW | UNION BERLIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 Sep (open) | 1.15 | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| Sun 13 Sep | 1.11 | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| Fri 18 Sep (kick-off) | 1.08 | 15.00 | 28.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 51.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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