Juventus – NEC Nijmegen odds
Juventus went into the match as heavy favourites against NEC Nijmegen.
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Juventus – NEC Nijmegen: closing odds analysis
- Juventus were favourites: the closing odds implied a 76% chance of a home win, 9% for NEC Nijmegen and 15% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Juventus 1.31 at bwin, the draw 6.90 at VBET, NEC Nijmegen 12.00 at Stake.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on NEC Nijmegen drifted from 9.60 at the opening to 12.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 48% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Juventus or NEC Nijmegen?
Juventus, by a distance: the closing odds put 67.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Juventus – NEC Nijmegen?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Juventus, VBET on the draw and Stake on NEC Nijmegen. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.9%) and VBET the least (92.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | JUVENTUS | DRAW | NEC NIJMEGEN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 1.31 best price | 5.25 | 10.00 | 94.9% |
| Stake | 1.21 | 6.80 | 12.00 best price | 94.6% |
| VBET | 1.18 | 6.90 best price | 11.00 | 92.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.31 | 6.90 | 12.00 | 100.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.18–1.31 · 11.0% | 5.25–6.90 · 31.4% | 10.00–12.00 · 20.0% | 92.3–94.9% |
How did the Juventus – NEC Nijmegen odds move before kick-off?
The best price on NEC Nijmegen drifted from 9.60 when odds opened on 2 Sep to 12.00 at kick-off, a 25.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | JUVENTUS | DRAW | NEC NIJMEGEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 2 Sep (open) | 1.41 | 5.80 | 9.60 |
| Thu 10 Sep | 1.40 | 5.80 | 9.80 |
| Thu 17 Sep (kick-off) | 1.31 | 6.90 | 12.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 47.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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