Crystal Palace – Lech Poznan odds
Crystal Palace went into the match as heavy favourites against Lech Poznan.
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Crystal Palace – Lech Poznan: closing odds analysis
- Crystal Palace were favourites: the closing odds implied a 65% chance of a home win, 14% for Lech Poznan and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Crystal Palace 1.55 at bwin, the draw 4.90 at Stake, Lech Poznan 7.00 at Stake.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Lech Poznan drifted from 6.60 at the opening to 7.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 51% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Crystal Palace or Lech Poznan?
Crystal Palace, by a distance: the closing odds put 51.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Crystal Palace – Lech Poznan?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Crystal Palace, Stake on the draw and Stake on Lech Poznan. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.8%) and VBET the least (92.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | CRYSTAL PALACE | DRAW | LECH POZNAN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 1.55 best price | 4.00 | 6.25 | 94.8% |
| Stake | 1.40 | 4.90 best price | 7.00 best price | 94.2% |
| VBET | 1.37 | 4.90 best price | 6.80 | 92.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.55 | 4.90 | 7.00 | 100.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.37–1.55 · 13.1% | 4.00–4.90 · 22.5% | 6.25–7.00 · 12.0% | 92.5–94.8% |
How did the Crystal Palace – Lech Poznan odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Lech Poznan drifted from 6.60 when odds opened on 10 Sep to 7.00 at kick-off, a 6.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CRYSTAL PALACE | DRAW | LECH POZNAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 10 Sep (open) | 1.57 | 4.70 | 6.60 |
| Mon 14 Sep | 1.55 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| Thu 17 Sep (kick-off) | 1.55 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 50.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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