Sturm Graz – Rennes odds
Rennes went into the match as clear favourites against Sturm Graz.
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Sturm Graz – Rennes: closing odds analysis
- Rennes were favourites: the closing odds implied a 46% chance of an away win, 31% for Sturm Graz and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Sturm Graz 3.90 at Stake, the draw 4.10 at bwin, Rennes 2.70 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Rennes drifted from 2.20 at the opening to 2.70 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 62% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Sturm Graz or Rennes?
Rennes, clearly: the closing odds put 14.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Sturm Graz – Rennes?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Sturm Graz, bwin on the draw and bwin on Rennes. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (95.2%) and bwin the least (89.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | STURM GRAZ | DRAW | RENNES | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.90 best price | 4.00 | 1.84 | 95.2% |
| VBET | 3.88 | 3.83 | 1.78 | 92.5% |
| bwin | 1.98 | 4.10 best price | 2.70 best price | 89.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.90 | 4.10 | 2.70 | 114.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.98–3.90 · 97.0% | 3.83–4.10 · 7.0% | 1.78–2.70 · 51.7% | 89.3–95.2% |
How did the Sturm Graz – Rennes odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Rennes drifted from 2.20 when odds opened on 2 Sep to 2.70 at kick-off, a 22.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | STURM GRAZ | DRAW | RENNES |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 2 Sep (open) | 3.45 | 3.73 | 2.20 |
| Thu 10 Sep | 3.45 | 3.81 | 2.15 |
| Wed 16 Sep (kick-off) | 3.90 | 4.10 | 2.70 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 62.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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