Bayer Leverkusen – Celje odds
Bayer Leverkusen went into the match as heavy favourites against Celje.
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Bayer Leverkusen – Celje: closing odds analysis
- Bayer Leverkusen were favourites: the closing odds implied a 67% chance of a home win, 21% for Celje and 12% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Bayer Leverkusen 4.60 at bwin, the draw 15.00 at Stake, Celje 30.00 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Bayer Leverkusen drifted from 1.30 at the opening to 4.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 42% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Bayer Leverkusen or Celje?
Bayer Leverkusen, by a distance: the closing odds put 45.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Bayer Leverkusen – Celje?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Bayer Leverkusen, Stake on the draw and Stake on Celje. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (95.8%) and bwin the least (89.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | BAYER LEVERKUSEN | DRAW | CELJE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.06 | 15.00 best price | 30.00 best price | 95.8% |
| VBET | 1.06 | 15.00 best price | 29.00 | 95.7% |
| bwin | 4.60 best price | 3.90 | 1.55 | 89.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 4.60 | 15.00 | 30.00 | 315.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.06–4.60 · 334.0% | 3.90–15.00 · 284.6% | 1.55–30.00 · 1835.5% | 89.4–95.8% |
How did the Bayer Leverkusen – Celje odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Bayer Leverkusen drifted from 1.30 when odds opened on 2 Sep to 4.60 at kick-off, a 253.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BAYER LEVERKUSEN | DRAW | CELJE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 2 Sep (open) | 1.30 | 7.60 | 13.00 |
| Thu 10 Sep | 1.30 | 7.60 | 12.00 |
| Wed 16 Sep (kick-off) | 4.60 | 15.00 | 30.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 42.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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