Ararat-Armenia – Sparta Prague odds
Sparta Prague went into the match as clear favourites against Ararat-Armenia.
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Ararat-Armenia – Sparta Prague: closing odds analysis
- Sparta Prague were favourites: the closing odds implied a 47% chance of an away win, 30% for Ararat-Armenia and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Ararat-Armenia 5.00 at Stake, the draw 4.10 at Stake, Sparta Prague 3.20 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Sparta Prague drifted from 1.83 at the opening to 3.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 56% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Ararat-Armenia or Sparta Prague?
Sparta Prague, clearly: the closing odds put 17.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Ararat-Armenia – Sparta Prague?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Ararat-Armenia, Stake on the draw and bwin on Sparta Prague. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (94.9%) and bwin the least (89.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | ARARAT-ARMENIA | DRAW | SPARTA PRAGUE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 5.00 best price | 4.10 best price | 1.64 | 94.9% |
| VBET | 4.50 | 3.74 | 1.69 | 92.5% |
| bwin | 1.82 | 3.90 | 3.20 best price | 89.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 5.00 | 4.10 | 3.20 | 132.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.82–5.00 · 174.7% | 3.74–4.10 · 9.6% | 1.64–3.20 · 95.1% | 89.4–94.9% |
How did the Ararat-Armenia – Sparta Prague odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Sparta Prague drifted from 1.83 when odds opened on 6 Sep to 3.20 at kick-off, a 74.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ARARAT-ARMENIA | DRAW | SPARTA PRAGUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 6 Sep (open) | 4.80 | 3.95 | 1.83 |
| Fri 11 Sep | 5.00 | 4.10 | 1.77 |
| Wed 16 Sep (kick-off) | 5.00 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 56.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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