Anderlecht – Lyon odds
Anderlecht and Lyon went into the match almost level in the odds.
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Anderlecht – Lyon: closing odds analysis
- No clear favourite: the closing odds implied 36% for Anderlecht, 26% for a draw and 38% for Lyon.
- Best closing odds: Anderlecht 2.96 at VBET, the draw 3.90 at bwin, Lyon 2.65 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Lyon drifted from 2.15 at the opening to 2.65 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Anderlecht or Lyon?
Neither side, really: the closing odds put only 1.8 percentage points between Anderlecht and Lyon.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Anderlecht – Lyon?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Anderlecht, bwin on the draw and bwin on Lyon. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (95.1%) and bwin the least (89.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | ANDERLECHT | DRAW | LYON | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.85 | 3.55 | 2.39 | 95.1% |
| VBET | 2.96 best price | 3.52 | 2.32 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 2.05 | 3.90 best price | 2.65 best price | 89.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.96 | 3.90 | 2.65 | 102.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.05–2.96 · 44.4% | 3.52–3.90 · 10.8% | 2.32–2.65 · 14.2% | 89.2–95.1% |
How did the Anderlecht – Lyon odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Lyon drifted from 2.15 when odds opened on 2 Sep to 2.65 at kick-off, a 23.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ANDERLECHT | DRAW | LYON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 2 Sep (open) | 3.53 | 3.70 | 2.15 |
| Thu 10 Sep | 3.50 | 3.66 | 2.15 |
| Wed 16 Sep (kick-off) | 2.96 | 3.90 | 2.65 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 59.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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