AC Milan – Benfica odds
AC Milan went into the match as narrow favourites against Benfica.
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AC Milan – Benfica: closing odds analysis
- AC Milan were favourites: the closing odds implied a 40% chance of a home win, 34% for Benfica and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AC Milan 2.37 at bwin, the draw 3.75 at bwin, Benfica 2.95 at Stake.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Benfica shortened from 3.50 at the opening to 2.95 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AC Milan or Benfica?
AC Milan, but only just: the closing odds put 5.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AC Milan – Benfica?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on AC Milan, bwin on the draw and Stake on Benfica. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.2%) and bwin the least (89.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | AC MILAN | DRAW | BENFICA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 2.34 | 3.53 | 2.94 | 95.2% |
| Stake | 2.32 | 3.55 | 2.95 best price | 95.1% |
| bwin | 2.37 best price | 3.75 best price | 2.30 | 89.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.37 | 3.75 | 2.95 | 97.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.32–2.37 · 2.2% | 3.53–3.75 · 6.2% | 2.30–2.95 · 28.3% | 89.0–95.2% |
How did the AC Milan – Benfica odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Benfica shortened from 3.50 when odds opened on 2 Sep to 2.95 at kick-off, a 15.7% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AC MILAN | DRAW | BENFICA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 2 Sep (open) | 2.15 | 3.65 | 3.50 |
| Thu 10 Sep | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.39 |
| Wed 16 Sep (kick-off) | 2.37 | 3.75 | 2.95 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 59.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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