Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol odds
Rayo Vallecano went into the match as clear favourites against Espanyol.
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Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol: closing odds analysis
- Rayo Vallecano were favourites: the closing odds implied a 42% chance of a home win, 28% for Espanyol and 29% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.30 at Stake, the draw 3.35 at Stake, Espanyol 3.40 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Rayo Vallecano drifted from 2.04 at the opening to 2.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 52% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Rayo Vallecano or Espanyol?
Rayo Vallecano, clearly: the closing odds put 13.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol?
Stake, on all three outcomes. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.3%) and VBET the least (92.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | RAYO VALLECANO | DRAW | ESPANYOL | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.30 best price | 3.35 best price | 3.40 best price | 97.3% |
| bwin | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 94.8% |
| VBET | 2.18 | 3.16 | 3.30 | 92.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.30 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 97.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.18–2.30 · 5.5% | 3.16–3.35 · 6.0% | 3.30–3.40 · 3.0% | 92.7–97.3% |
How did the Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Rayo Vallecano drifted from 2.04 when odds opened on 11 Sep to 2.30 at kick-off, a 12.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | RAYO VALLECANO | DRAW | ESPANYOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 11 Sep (open) | 2.04 | 3.45 | 3.70 |
| Sun 13 Sep | 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.65 |
| Tue 15 Sep (kick-off) | 2.30 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 51.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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