Man Utd – Man City odds
Man City went into the match as narrow favourites against Man Utd.
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Man Utd – Man City: closing odds analysis
- Man City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 42% chance of an away win, 33% for Man Utd and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Man Utd 3.01 at VBET, the draw 3.89 at VBET, Man City 2.28 at Stake.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Man City drifted from 2.15 at the opening to 2.28 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 66% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Man Utd or Man City?
Man City, but only just: the closing odds put 9.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Man Utd – Man City?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Man Utd, VBET on the draw and Stake on Man City. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (97.1%) and bwin the least (94.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | MAN UTD | DRAW | MAN CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 3.01 best price | 3.89 best price | 2.27 | 97.1% |
| Stake | 3.00 | 3.85 | 2.28 best price | 96.9% |
| bwin | 2.85 | 3.75 | 2.25 | 94.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.01 | 3.89 | 2.28 | 97.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.85–3.01 · 5.6% | 3.75–3.89 · 3.7% | 2.25–2.28 · 1.3% | 94.2–97.1% |
How did the Man Utd – Man City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Man City drifted from 2.15 when odds opened on 6 Sep to 2.28 at kick-off, a 6.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MAN UTD | DRAW | MAN CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 6 Sep (open) | 3.10 | 3.86 | 2.15 |
| Thu 10 Sep | 3.20 | 3.80 | 2.16 |
| Sun 13 Sep (kick-off) | 3.01 | 3.89 | 2.28 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 66.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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