FC Nordsjælland – AGF odds
FC Nordsjælland went into the match as heavy favourites against AGF.
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FC Nordsjælland – AGF: closing odds analysis
- FC Nordsjælland were favourites: the closing odds implied a 54% chance of a home win, 23% for AGF and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: FC Nordsjælland 1.81 at VBET, the draw 4.30 at VBET, AGF 4.30 at VBET.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 98.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on AGF drifted from 3.80 at the opening to 4.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 63% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, FC Nordsjælland or AGF?
FC Nordsjælland, by a distance: the closing odds put 31.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on FC Nordsjælland – AGF?
VBET, on all three outcomes. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (98.3%) and Betmaster the least (90.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | FC NORDSJÆLLAND | DRAW | AGF | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.81 best price | 4.30 best price | 4.30 best price | 98.3% |
| ComeOn | 1.76 | 4.18 | 4.18 | 95.5% |
| Oddset | 1.77 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 95.2% |
| Casinomoto | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 1.71 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 1.78 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 94.2% |
| Bet25 | 1.74 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 94.1% |
| Merkur Bets | 1.70 | 4.15 | 4.24 | 93.9% |
| Stake | 1.77 | 4.00 | 3.95 | 93.6% |
| Betinia | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 92.6% |
| CampoBet | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 92.6% |
| Betoro | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 92.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.70 | 4.02 | 4.02 | 92.1% |
| Casinostuen | 1.70 | 4.02 | 4.02 | 92.1% |
| 888sport | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 91.9% |
| Mr Green | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 91.9% |
| SpreadEx | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 91.9% |
| TipWin | 1.70 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 90.8% |
| Betmaster | 1.71 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 90.3% |
| Marathonbet | — | 1.69 | 4.00 | — |
| BEST PRICE | 1.81 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 98.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.69–1.81 · 7.1% | 1.69–4.30 · 154.4% | 3.85–4.30 · 11.7% | 90.3–98.3% |
How did the FC Nordsjælland – AGF odds move before kick-off?
The best price on AGF drifted from 3.80 when odds opened on 7 Sep to 4.30 at kick-off, a 13.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FC NORDSJÆLLAND | DRAW | AGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 Sep (open) | 1.87 | 3.95 | 3.80 |
| Thu 10 Sep | 1.87 | 4.20 | 4.25 |
| Sun 13 Sep (kick-off) | 1.81 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 63.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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