Swansea City – Burnley odds
Swansea City went into the match as narrow favourites against Burnley.
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Swansea City – Burnley: closing odds analysis
- Swansea City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 40% chance of a home win, 34% for Burnley and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Swansea City 3.10 at bwin, the draw 3.60 at bwin, Burnley 3.40 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 93.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Swansea City drifted from 2.30 at the opening to 3.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Swansea City or Burnley?
Swansea City, but only just: the closing odds put 5.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Swansea City – Burnley?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Swansea City, bwin on the draw and Stake on Burnley. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (93.5%) and bwin the least (87.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | SWANSEA CITY | DRAW | BURNLEY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.06 | 3.45 | 3.40 best price | 93.5% |
| VBET | 1.99 | 3.32 | 3.39 | 91.0% |
| bwin | 3.10 best price | 3.60 best price | 1.85 | 87.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.10 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 111.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.99–3.10 · 55.8% | 3.32–3.60 · 8.4% | 1.85–3.40 · 83.8% | 87.7–93.5% |
How did the Swansea City – Burnley odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Swansea City drifted from 2.30 when odds opened on 9 Sep to 3.10 at kick-off, a 34.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SWANSEA CITY | DRAW | BURNLEY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 9 Sep (open) | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.10 |
| Fri 11 Sep | 2.35 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Sat 12 Sep (kick-off) | 3.10 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 54.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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