Augsburg – Bayer Leverkusen odds
Bayer Leverkusen went into the match as clear favourites against Augsburg.
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Augsburg – Bayer Leverkusen: closing odds analysis
- Bayer Leverkusen were favourites: the closing odds implied a 50% chance of an away win, 26% for Augsburg and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Augsburg 3.70 at Stake, the draw 4.20 at Stake, Bayer Leverkusen 1.91 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Augsburg shortened from 4.50 at the opening to 3.70 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 68% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Augsburg or Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen, clearly: the closing odds put 23.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Augsburg – Bayer Leverkusen?
Stake, on all three outcomes. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.9%) and VBET the least (92.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | AUGSBURG | DRAW | BAYER LEVERKUSEN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.70 best price | 4.20 best price | 1.91 best price | 96.9% |
| bwin | 3.40 | 4.00 | 1.90 | 93.4% |
| VBET | 3.62 | 3.85 | 1.84 | 92.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.70 | 4.20 | 1.91 | 96.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.40–3.70 · 8.8% | 3.85–4.20 · 9.1% | 1.84–1.91 · 3.8% | 92.6–96.9% |
How did the Augsburg – Bayer Leverkusen odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Augsburg shortened from 4.50 when odds opened on 1 Sep to 3.70 at kick-off, a 17.8% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AUGSBURG | DRAW | BAYER LEVERKUSEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 1 Sep (open) | 4.50 | 4.40 | 1.66 |
| Sun 6 Sep | 4.20 | 4.30 | 1.73 |
| Sat 12 Sep (kick-off) | 3.70 | 4.20 | 1.91 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 68.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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