Union Berlin – Schalke 04 odds
Union Berlin went into the match as narrow favourites against Schalke 04.
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Union Berlin – Schalke 04: closing odds analysis
- Union Berlin were favourites: the closing odds implied a 41% chance of a home win, 31% for Schalke 04 and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Union Berlin 2.39 at Stake, the draw 3.45 at Stake, Schalke 04 3.15 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Union Berlin drifted from 2.13 at the opening to 2.39 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 59% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Union Berlin or Schalke 04?
Union Berlin, but only just: the closing odds put 9.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Union Berlin – Schalke 04?
Stake, on all three outcomes. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.5%) and bwin the least (93.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | UNION BERLIN | DRAW | SCHALKE 04 | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.39 best price | 3.45 best price | 3.15 best price | 97.5% |
| VBET | 2.31 | 3.33 | 3.15 best price | 95.2% |
| bwin | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.95 | 93.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.39 | 3.45 | 3.15 | 97.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.30–2.39 · 3.9% | 3.33–3.45 · 3.6% | 2.95–3.15 · 6.8% | 93.6–97.5% |
How did the Union Berlin – Schalke 04 odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Union Berlin drifted from 2.13 when odds opened on 31 Aug to 2.39 at kick-off, a 12.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | UNION BERLIN | DRAW | SCHALKE 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 31 Aug (open) | 2.13 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Sat 5 Sep | 2.11 | 3.70 | 3.26 |
| Fri 11 Sep (kick-off) | 2.39 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 58.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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