PSV – Shakhtar Donetsk odds
PSV went into the match as heavy favourites against Shakhtar Donetsk.
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PSV – Shakhtar Donetsk: closing odds analysis
- PSV were favourites: the closing odds implied a 62% chance of a home win, 18% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 19% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: PSV 3.75 at bwin, the draw 6.05 at Marathonbet, Shakhtar Donetsk 6.40 at Bet25.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on PSV drifted from 1.57 at the opening to 3.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, PSV or Shakhtar Donetsk?
PSV, by a distance: the closing odds put 43.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on PSV – Shakhtar Donetsk?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on PSV, Marathonbet on the draw and Bet25 on Shakhtar Donetsk. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.8%) and bwin the least (89.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | PSV | DRAW | SHAKHTAR DONETSK | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.50 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 96.8% |
| Bet25 | 1.43 | 5.20 | 6.40 best price | 95.4% |
| VBET | 1.47 | 4.75 | 6.20 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.33 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.33 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.33 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.33 | 95.0% |
| Expekt | 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.25 | 94.0% |
| TipWin | 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.25 | 94.0% |
| Betmaster | 1.43 | 4.80 | 6.20 | 93.6% |
| SpreadEx | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 92.5% |
| bwin | 3.75 best price | 4.10 | 1.63 | 89.0% |
| Marathonbet | — | 6.05 best price | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 3.75 | 6.05 | 6.40 | 170.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.40–3.75 · 167.9% | 4.10–6.05 · 47.6% | 1.63–6.40 · 292.6% | 89.0–96.8% |
How did the PSV – Shakhtar Donetsk odds move before kick-off?
The best price on PSV drifted from 1.57 when odds opened on 6 Sep to 3.80 at kick-off, a 142.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | PSV | DRAW | SHAKHTAR DONETSK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 6 Sep (open) | 1.57 | 4.90 | 6.20 |
| Tue 8 Sep | 1.57 | 6.05 | 6.40 |
| Thu 10 Sep (kick-off) | 3.80 | 6.05 | 6.40 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 60.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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