Fenerbahçe – Roma odds
Roma went into the match as clear favourites against Fenerbahçe.
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Fenerbahçe – Roma: closing odds analysis
- Roma were favourites: the closing odds implied a 44% chance of an away win, 30% for Fenerbahçe and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Fenerbahçe 3.95 at VBET, the draw 4.00 at bwin, Roma 2.25 at bwin.
- Bet25 had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Fenerbahçe drifted from 3.30 at the opening to 3.95 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance of three or more goals and 61% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Fenerbahçe or Roma?
Roma, clearly: the closing odds put 14.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Fenerbahçe – Roma?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Fenerbahçe, bwin on the draw and bwin on Roma. Across all three outcomes Bet25 paid out the most (95.4%) and bwin the least (89.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | FENERBAHÇE | DRAW | ROMA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet25 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.24 | 95.4% |
| VBET | 3.95 best price | 3.62 | 1.92 | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.14 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.14 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.14 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.14 | 95.0% |
| Expekt | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 94.2% |
| TipWin | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 94.2% |
| SpreadEx | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.15 | 94.1% |
| Oddset | 3.15 | 3.35 | 2.22 | 93.8% |
| Betmaster | 3.15 | 3.25 | 2.22 | 93.0% |
| bwin | 2.35 | 4.00 best price | 2.25 best price | 89.3% |
| Stake | — | 3.85 | 1.96 | — |
| Marathonbet | 3.20 | 2.12 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 3.95 | 4.00 | 2.25 | 105.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.35–3.95 · 68.1% | 2.12–4.00 · 88.7% | 1.92–2.25 · 17.2% | 89.3–95.4% |
How did the Fenerbahçe – Roma odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Fenerbahçe drifted from 3.30 when odds opened on 8 Sep to 3.95 at kick-off, a 19.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FENERBAHÇE | DRAW | ROMA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 8 Sep (open) | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Wed 9 Sep | 3.30 | 4.10 | 2.25 |
| Thu 10 Sep (kick-off) | 3.95 | 4.00 | 2.25 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 61.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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