Napoli – Arsenal odds
Arsenal went into the match as heavy favourites against Napoli.
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Napoli – Arsenal: closing odds analysis
- Arsenal were favourites: the closing odds implied a 53% chance of an away win, 21% for Napoli and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Napoli 5.50 at Stake, the draw 4.45 at Marathonbet, Arsenal 2.60 at bwin.
- CampoBet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Napoli drifted from 2.97 at the opening to 5.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance of three or more goals and 49% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Napoli or Arsenal?
Arsenal, by a distance: the closing odds put 32.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Napoli – Arsenal?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Napoli, Marathonbet on the draw and bwin on Arsenal. Across all three outcomes CampoBet paid out the most (95.1%) and bwin the least (89.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | NAPOLI | DRAW | ARSENAL | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CampoBet | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 95.1% |
| Bet25 | 4.70 | 3.65 | 1.77 | 95.1% |
| Stake | 5.50 best price | 3.55 | 1.70 | 95.1% |
| VBET | 5.20 | 3.72 | 1.69 | 95.0% |
| Oddset | 4.50 | 3.65 | 1.79 | 94.8% |
| ComeOn | 4.66 | 3.62 | 1.76 | 94.4% |
| SpreadEx | 4.75 | 3.70 | 1.73 | 94.4% |
| GetLucky | 4.61 | 3.58 | 1.75 | 93.7% |
| Casinostuen | 4.61 | 3.58 | 1.75 | 93.7% |
| Betmaster | 4.50 | 3.45 | 1.78 | 93.1% |
| bwin | 2.35 | 3.20 | 2.60 best price | 89.1% |
| Marathonbet | — | 4.45 best price | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 5.50 | 4.45 | 2.60 | 126.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.35–5.50 · 134.0% | 3.20–4.45 · 39.1% | 1.69–2.60 · 53.8% | 89.1–95.1% |
How did the Napoli – Arsenal odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Napoli drifted from 2.97 when odds opened on 29 Aug to 5.40 at kick-off, a 81.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | NAPOLI | DRAW | ARSENAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 29 Aug (open) | 2.97 | 3.55 | 2.50 |
| Fri 4 Sep | 4.20 | 3.57 | 2.37 |
| Wed 9 Sep (kick-off) | 5.40 | 4.45 | 2.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 49.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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