Liverpool – Atlético Madrid odds
Liverpool went into the match as heavy favourites against Atlético Madrid.
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Liverpool – Atlético Madrid: closing odds analysis
- Liverpool were favourites: the closing odds implied a 52% chance of a home win, 24% for Atlético Madrid and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Liverpool 4.40 at bwin, the draw 4.25 at Marathonbet, Atlético Madrid 4.75 at Casino House.
- Expekt had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Liverpool drifted from 2.05 at the opening to 4.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 54% chance of three or more goals and 59% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Liverpool or Atlético Madrid?
Liverpool, by a distance: the closing odds put 28.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Liverpool – Atlético Madrid?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Liverpool, Marathonbet on the draw and Casino House on Atlético Madrid. Across all three outcomes Expekt paid out the most (95.7%) and bwin the least (89.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | LIVERPOOL | DRAW | ATLÉTICO MADRID | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expekt | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.60 | 95.7% |
| Casino House | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.75 best price | 95.4% |
| Oddset | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.50 | 95.2% |
| VBET | 1.76 | 3.84 | 4.50 | 95.2% |
| Bet25 | 1.72 | 3.95 | 4.60 | 95.1% |
| SpreadEx | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.60 | 94.7% |
| Stake | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.35 | 94.5% |
| ComeOn | 1.69 | 3.96 | 4.56 | 94.0% |
| GetLucky | 1.68 | 3.93 | 4.51 | 93.3% |
| Casinostuen | 1.68 | 3.93 | 4.51 | 93.3% |
| Betmaster | 1.71 | 3.75 | 4.50 | 93.1% |
| bwin | 4.40 best price | 4.00 | 1.57 | 89.7% |
| Marathonbet | — | 4.25 best price | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 4.40 | 4.25 | 4.75 | 148.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.68–4.40 · 161.9% | 3.75–4.25 · 13.3% | 1.57–4.75 · 202.5% | 89.7–95.7% |
How did the Liverpool – Atlético Madrid odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Liverpool drifted from 2.05 when odds opened on 29 Aug to 4.40 at kick-off, a 114.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LIVERPOOL | DRAW | ATLÉTICO MADRID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 29 Aug (open) | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| Fri 4 Sep | 1.88 | 3.95 | 4.50 |
| Wed 9 Sep (kick-off) | 4.40 | 4.25 | 4.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 59.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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