Derby County – West Bromwich Albion odds
West Bromwich Albion went into the match as narrow favourites against Derby County.
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Derby County – West Bromwich Albion: closing odds analysis
- West Bromwich Albion were favourites: the closing odds implied a 42% chance of an away win, 30% for Derby County and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Derby County 3.35 at Stake, the draw 3.40 at bwin, West Bromwich Albion 2.20 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.1%.
- The closing odds implied a 52% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Derby County or West Bromwich Albion?
West Bromwich Albion, but only just: the closing odds put 11.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Derby County – West Bromwich Albion?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Derby County, bwin on the draw and bwin on West Bromwich Albion. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (94.1%) and bwin the least (87.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | DERBY COUNTY | DRAW | WEST BROMWICH ALBION | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.35 best price | 3.25 | 2.19 | 94.1% |
| VBET | 3.25 | 3.18 | 2.10 | 91.0% |
| bwin | 2.55 | 3.40 best price | 2.20 best price | 87.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 95.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.55–3.35 · 31.4% | 3.18–3.40 · 6.9% | 2.10–2.20 · 4.8% | 87.7–94.1% |
How did the Derby County – West Bromwich Albion odds move before kick-off?
The best prices barely moved between the opening on 9 Sep and kick-off: no outcome moved more than 1.5%.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | DERBY COUNTY | DRAW | WEST BROMWICH ALBION |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 9 Sep (open) | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Wed 9 Sep (kick-off) | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 52.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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